Demand for China export freight has ramped up, and it’s now a little over two weeks left before China shuts down for a week. While space is tight for ocean freight, there’s not enough increased demand to make the mid-month GRIs stick, with China-US West Coast prices holding firm at $1,312/40’, and China-US East Coast prices losing 2% last week as they head into the second week of dropping rates.
This likely means that February 1 GRIs will also have very little impact on prices. With new capacity rolling out in coming months, ocean freight rates will likely fall away in early March and not recover until next peak season.
There’s a similar story for air freight rates from China, which recorded modest increases last week. For instance, two weeks ago China-Europe rates ranged between $2.20-3.50/kg, but by last week were $2.65-4.00/kg. They will probably also experience small rises again this week and again next week.
Europe-US routes are getting close to capacity again. Airlines had resumed promotions two weeks ago, but last week, although there were still promotions for the UK, most were withdrawn for France and Germany.
Ocean Freight Pricing
TRADE LANE
|
THIS WEEK
|
LAST WEEK
|
WOW CHANGE
|
THIS WEEK (2016)
|
YOY CHANGE
|
China-US West Coast
|
$1,312
|
$1,312
|
0%
|
$2,095
|
-37%
|
China-US East Coast
|
$2,669
|
$2,719
|
-2%
|
$3,543
|
-25%
|
China-Europe
|
$1,540
|
$1,500
|
3%
|
$2,165
|
-29%
|
Europe-US East Coast
|
$1,414
|
$1,420
|
0%
|
$1,505
|
-6%
|
Figure 1: FreightOS International Freight Indexes: Major lanes week on week and year on year
All prices are fairly static.
Year on year changes are misleading, because CNY fell out on January 29 last year.
Freightos Index Update W4 2018
