IBA, the leading aviation market intelligence and advisory company, forecasts that international air capacity from Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau during this year’s autumn holiday period is scheduled to be 54% higher since 2023, rising from approximately 4.5 million to 7.0 million seats.

Intelligence from IBA’s aviation intelligence platform, IBA Insight, shows that airlines will offer almost 40 million departing seats between 25 September and 8 October 2026, compared with around 34 million over the equivalent period in 2023, as Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day Golden Week combine to drive a concentrated period of domestic and international travel.

China’s domestic market continues to provide the overwhelming majority of capacity, with approximately 33 million domestic seats scheduled during the two-week period, up from around 30 million in 2023. However, international capacity has expanded faster and now accounts for 18% of departing seats, up from 13% in 2023.

The timing of China’s two major autumn holidays is expected to concentrate travel demand further this year. Mid-Autumn Festival falls on 25 September, followed less than a week later by the start of National Day Golden Week on 1 October, creating a sustained period of family visits and leisure travel both within China and internationally.

IBA data also highlights the central role of narrowbody aircraft in supporting the holiday travel programme. Of approximately 231,000 departures scheduled from Mainland China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau during the period, 195,257, or 84%, will be operated by narrowbody aircraft.

The fleet mix reflects the scale of China’s domestic market, its dense regional networks and the concentration of international growth on destinations within narrowbody range.


Dan Taylor, Head of Consulting at IBA, said: “What stands out is the renewed momentum in international travel alongside the continued scale of China’s domestic market. The autumn holiday period brings those two dynamics together, with airlines having to support very high domestic demand while also rebuilding cross-border capacity.

“The dominance of narrowbody aircraft reflects how much of that growth is concentrated across domestic and regional international routes. As those markets continue to develop, we expect narrowbody fleets to remain central to airline capacity strategies across the wider region.”