Cirium, the world’s most trusted source of aviation analytics, today released its annual Fleet Forecast, revealing the future of the global commercial passenger and freighter aircraft market. The long-running annual forecast produced by Cirium Ascend Consultancy provides an independent analysis of the state of the market.

This year’s forecast predicts some 43,000 new passenger and freighter jet and turboprop aircraft will be delivered globally between 2026 and 2045, with an estimated total value of US$3.2 trillion in 2026 dollars, as airlines invest in fleet growth and renewal. This compares with Cirium’s 2025 forecast of 46,500 aircraft deliveries worth US$3.4 trillion in 2025 dollars, reflecting a moderation in the long-term delivery outlook.

Stephen Burnside, Global Head of Cirium Ascend Consultancy, said: “The 2026 Cirium Fleet Forecast shows that long-term aircraft demand remains strong, but the pace of growth increasingly depends on the industry’s ability to deliver. Supply chain resilience, engine availability and scalable production will be critical to meeting demand from airlines as they seek to expand their networks and replace ageing fleets.”

“This year we've further strengthened the forecast by incorporating more granular real-world data and adding interactive tools. This allow customers to explore fleet, delivery and retirement projections in greater detail and pressure-test their assumptions against an independent market outlook.”

The forecast expects the aircraft supply-demand mismatch experienced over the past five years to continue throughout the 2020s, placing greater emphasis on manufacturing capacity, engine availability and the scalability of future aircraft production programs. Supply chain bottlenecks, engine availability, extended certification timelines, geopolitical uncertainty and persistent cost pressures are limiting the pace at which capacity can be added.

Near-term traffic conditions also reinforce the importance of separating cyclical volatility from the 20-year structural outlook. Passenger traffic weakened during parts of 2026, with geopolitical disruption particularly affecting Middle Eastern flows. Higher fuel costs, geopolitical risk and uncertainty around global trade therefore remain capable of shifting the timing and regional distribution of capacity growth without necessarily changing the fundamental long-term requirement for additional aircraft.

The global passenger fleet is expected to reach just over 50,000 aircraft by 2045, with compound annual growth of 3.2%. This is slightly below the 3.3% projected in last year’s forecast.

Forecast new deliveries 2026-20

Other key findings in the outlook include:

● China, India and Asia-Pacific collectively account for approximately 48% of modelled passenger fleet allocation, underlining the importance of Asian markets to the long-term outlook.

● Airbus and Boeing account for a combined 86% of modelled passenger fleet allocation, at 47% and 39% respectively. COMAC accounts for 5%. These figures describe fleet allocation rather than future delivery market share.

● Single-aisle jets represent 76% of modelled passenger fleet allocation. The A321neo is the largest individual aircraft series, accounting for 16%, reflecting airlines’ continued shift towards larger single-aisle aircraft.

● The outlook highlights the resilience of air cargo, supported by e-commerce, high-value goods and time-sensitive logistics, even as international trade uncertainty reshapes established supply chains.

● Cirium expects conventional gas-turbine aircraft to remain the foundation of the commercial fleet throughout the forecast period. With sustainable aviation fuel availability and cost continuing to constrain adoption, fleet renewal and improvements in both aircraft and engine efficiency are expected to remain central to reducing fuel consumption.

Forecast new deliveries 2026-2045 by airline region

This year, Cirium has enhanced its Fleet Forecast with a new interactive dashboard, enabling customers to explore fleet projections, test scenarios and interrogate the underlying data. Combined with expert interpretation from Cirium Ascend Consultancy, the enhanced forecast helps customers understand not only where the industry is heading, but also the market forces shaping its future.