Quarter-end freight push lifts van spot rate 11 cents to $3.13 per mile

DAT One load posts totaled 3.3 million for the week of Sept. 27–Oct. 3, up 9% from the prior week, as quarter-end shipping helped lift freight activity. Equipment posts fell 8% to 170,691, with truck posts down for all three equipment types. All-in and line-haul rates rose across the board.

The EIA’s national average on-highway diesel price used in this report’s fuel surcharge calculation was $6.529 a gallon (week ending Sept. 21), up 24.4 cents (4%) from $6.285 the week before and the highest weekly reading in its records going back to 2007. Diesel has eased since. The EIA reported $6.382 a gallon for the week ending Sept. 28, down 14.7 cents and the first weekly decline in four weeks. The fuel surcharge will reflect that price in next week’s On the Spot report.

7-day average broker-to-carrier spot rates (linehaul + fuel surcharge):

▲ Van: $3.13 per mile, up 11 cents

▲ Reefer: $3.69 per mile, up 7 cents

▲ Flatbed: $3.71 per mile, up 11 cents

Dry van: Van posts reflected the quarter-end surge.

▲ Loads: 1,588,410, up 15%

▼ Trucks: 115,764, down 7%

▲ Linehaul rate: $2.25 per mile, up 7 cents

▲ Load-to-truck ratio: 13.7, up from 11.1 the prior week

Reefer: Loads rose as trucks thinned.

▲ Loads: 710,211, up 9%

▼ Trucks: 32,806, down 12%

▲ Linehaul rate: $2.74 per mile, up 2 cents

▲ Load-to-truck ratio: 21.7, up from 17.6 the prior week

Flatbed: Still the tightest of the three.

▲ Loads: 976,193, up 1%

▼ Trucks: 22,121, down 7%

▲ Linehaul rate: $2.65 per mile, up 6 cents

▲ Load-to-truck ratio: 44.1, up from 40.3 the prior week

Market analysis from Dean Croke, industry analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics

The quarter closed with a push. Much of the week's freight was timed to the calendar, as revenue and quota deadlines pulled loads out the door before the books closed. Overflow moved to the spot market as contract capacity filled. Load posts rose and truck posts fell for all three equipment types, lifting every load-to-truck ratio. The move looks like a quarter-end push rather than a lasting demand shift.

Fuel added to the gain. Diesel rose 24.4 cents a gallon, adding about 4 cents a mile to dry van and reefer surcharges and 5 cents to flatbed. Linehaul did most of the work for van and flatbed. For reefer, where linehaul rose about 2 cents, fuel accounted for roughly two-thirds of the all-in increase.

Van saw the largest increase in load posts. Van load posts rose 15% while truck posts fell 7%, pushing the load-to-truck ratio to 13.7 from 11.1, nearly double Week 40 of last year. The Great Lakes posted the highest van rate among the top origin regions, at $2.59 a mile, up 10 cents on the week.

Reefer tightened sharply. Reefer had the steepest drop in trucks, down 12% against a 9% rise in loads, which lifted the ratio to 21.7 from 17.6. The Upper Midwest and Great Lakes posted the highest outbound reefer rates among the top origin regions, at $3.43 and $3.34 a mile.

Flatbed remained the tightest market. Load posts edged up 1% while truck posts fell 7%, and the ratio climbed to 44.1 from 40.3, the highest of the three by a wide margin. The Lower Atlantic posted the largest weekly gain among the top flatbed origins, up 21 cents to $2.85 a mile.

Linehaul rates are running about a third above last year. Van linehaul is up 34% year over year, reefer 33%, and flatbed 28%. Against the nine-year seasonal average for this week, van runs 21% higher, reefer 27%, and flatbed 25%. The 35-day DAT iQ RateCast forecast has van linehaul holding near $2.24 a mile in early November and reefer near $2.75, with flatbed easing to $2.62.