FTR reports that North American (N.A.) Class 8 preliminary net orders increased 18% month-over-month (m/m) and 3% year-over-year (y/y) to 21,300 units in September. Year-to-date orders through September totaled 263,499 units, up 95% y/y. Although the September m/m increase was smaller than typically seen seasonally, underlying demand remained fairly solid, supported by replacement needs, tight capacity, and firmer freight rates. Class 8 orders have totaled 351,244 units over the past 12 months.

Notably, September represented the transition to model year (MY) 2027 ordering. The EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy has ended, and surcharge-free MY 2026 engine build slots are effectively sold out. Some OEMs may have closed their MY 2026 order boards by early-to-mid August before opening MY 2027 books, potentially shifting some deferred orders into September. The month also marked the first full period in which order activity reflected OEMs’ evolving pathways toward 2027 NOx compliance. Differences in those strategies – including whether OEMs plan to use nonconformance penalties (NCPs) – may also have influenced order activity.

Another source of uncertainty is pricing. MY 2027 order boards are opening before the EPA’s 2027 NOx regulation is finalized, so pricing could still change once the final rule is issued. Until there is greater regulatory and cost clarity, orders over the next month or two could remain near year-ago levels – a period when tariff and EPA 2027 NOx uncertainty weighed on demand.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “With the EPA 2027 NOx pre-buy now complete, attention is shifting to MY 2027 engine choices and costs. EPA’s July proposal would reduce some transition risk by allowing NCPs, emissions credits, warranty relief, and other compliance flexibility. For Class 8, NCPs could result in an estimated $6,000 to $7,000 fleet pass-through, compared with an estimated $8,000 to $12,000 upcharge for a fully compliant engine.

“Truck and engine manufacturers have announced varying strategies for handling the emissions transition, and some have not yet made their plans clear. The final EPA rule could still materially alter the economics of these strategies. Higher NCPs would narrow the cost advantage of current-generation engines while lower NCPs would make that pathway more attractive. That major issue, along with other potential changes, could affect 2027 engine availability, fleet acquisition costs, and the mix of technologies ultimately selected.”

Preliminary orders may be estimated and are subject to revision when FTR releases final data mid-month as part of its North American Commercial Truck & Trailer Outlook service.