Trading Update
August bid/offer interest and prices hold, with changes possible should the market remain at a lower level. September drops off 1 cent however spreads widen, reflecting significant uncertainty in the coming months. Q4 outlook on both the EU and US trade lanes remains consistent holding at $2.89 and $4.01.
Market Comment
Rates from Shanghai to Europe sink dramatically, drawing down the China/ Hong Kong to Europe basket rates by 12 cents. AGR 4 reflects the extent of the rate drop loosing 5.11% week on week.
Hong Kong Airport announces politically related closures that will be reflected in any rate changes next week. However this will rely on the ability of carriers to roll a 1 days worth of cargo into the remaining 6 operating days.
Forward Curve
| Basket | USD/KG | CHANGE | CHANGE % | MTD |
| CHINA - EUR | 2.38 | -0.12 | -4.80% | 2.44 |
| CHINA - USA | 3.16 | 0.08 | 2.60% | 3.12 |
| Blended | USD/KG | CHANGE | CHANGE % | MTD |
| PVG/EUR | 2.20 | -0.21 | -8.71% | 2.31 |
| HKG/EUR | 2.56 | -0.03 | -1.16% | 2.58 |
| PVG/US | 3.04 | 0.06 | 2.01% | 3.01 |
| HKG/US | 3.28 | 0.10 | 3.14% | 3.23 |
‘Airfreight routes (AGRs)’ provide us with tradeable routes in conjunction with baskets, by maximising volumes along regional tradelanes. AGRs calculate the average of several correlating arrival points noted by their airport codes
| Airfreight Route (AR) | Description | PREVIOUS | USD/KG | CHANGE |
| AGR 1 | HKG to LAX & ORD & JFK | 3.13 | 3.18 | 1.60% |
| AGR 2 | HKG to LHR & FRA & AMS | 2.77 | 2.76 | -0.36% |
| AGR 3 | HKG to SIN & BKK & PVG | 1.17 | 1.15 | -1.71% |
| AGR 4 | PVG to AMS & FRA & LHR | 2.35 | 2.23 | -5.11% |
| Forward Curve - Indicative Update | ||||
| CHINA - EUROPE | USD/KG | ||||
| BID | ASK | VALUE | CHANGE | |
| Aug-19 | 2.50 | 2.52 | 2.51 | 0.00 |
| Sep-19 | 2.45 | 2.57 | 2.51 | -0.01 |
| Oct-19 | 2.63 | 2.69 | 2.66 | 0.00 |
| Q4 19 | 2.85 | 2.89 | 2.87 | 0.00 |
| Cal - 19 | 3.04 | 3.14 | 3.09 | 0.00 |
| Cal - 20 | 3.44 | 3.54 | 3.49 | 0.0 |
| Forward Curve - Indicative Update | ||||
| CHINA - USA | USD/KG | ||||
| BID | ASK | VALUE | CHANGE | |
| Aug-19 | 3.08 | 3.20 | 3.14 | 0.00 |
| Sep-19 | 3.23 | 3.30 | 3.26 | 0.00 |
| Oct-19 | 3.29 | 3.60 | 3.45 | 0.00 |
| Q4 19 | 3.91 | 4.01 | 3.96 | 0.00 |
| Cal - 19 | 3.91 | 4.01 | 3.96 | 0.00 |
| Cal - 20 | 4.12 | 4.22 | 4.17 | 0.00 |
