Key insights:
1. Transpacific container rates hit new highs last week as peak season demand continues to hold up despite the early start back in May. The demand strength may be supported by the absence of tariff hikes in July and an increase in data center hardware moving by sea. Reports of tariff refunds enabling some retailers to reduce prices may also be impacting demand expectations.
3. A succession of typhoons since mid-July – most recently Saudel, which closed ports including Shanghai and Ningbo – has created unrelenting and severe Far East congestion, with carriers skipping some port calls and rerouting volumes for transhipment; the backlog is a significant factor supporting both transpacific and Asia-Europe rates even as demand on the latter lane cools.
4. Asia-N. Europe prices have fallen more than $1,000/FEU from a July peak and Mediterranean rates are down more than $2,000/FEU, though both remain 40-70% above pre-peak May levels, likely due to Far East and regional congestion.
5. Transatlantic rates climbed $400/FEU over the last two weeks as carriers reduce capacity, with significant September increases planned though observers are skeptical these will stick.
6. The Freightos Air Index global benchmark eased 10% last week but remains more than 20% above year-ago levels; Far East-US rates slipped 7% to about $6.00/kg and Far East-Europe ticked up 1% to $4.60/kg, with both lanes trending higher so far this week, possibly reflecting renewed typhoon-driven disruptions.
Ocean rates - Freightos Baltic Index
• Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) increased 2% to $7,621/FEU.
• Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) increased 2% to $9,791/FEU.
• Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) decreased 1% to $4,641/FEU.
• Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) decreased 4% to $4,800/FEU.
Air rates - Freightos Air Index
• China - N. America weekly prices decreased 7% to $5.99/kg.
• China - N. Europe weekly prices increased 1% to $4.61/kg.
• N. Europe - N. America weekly prices stayed level at $2.01/kg.
Analysis
The increasingly cold war in the Strait of Hormuz – including reported progress in an Iran-Oman authority-sharing agreement – heated up a little recently. Alongside more Iranian strikes on vessels and US claims of demining progress, the US hit Iranian rocket launchers possibly dedicated to deploying more mines and Iran responded by targeting US sites in Jordan.
Transpacific ocean rates ticked up by 2% last week to new peak season highs for both coasts as volume strength has stretched on through August despite the early start to peak season demand back in late May.
Prices passed the $7,600/FEU mark for the West Coast and climbed to about $9,800/FEU to the East Coast. Carriers are increasing capacity slightly for September in anticipation of still-elevated volumes – with more rate increases, especially for the East Coast, possible to start the month – up until October's Golden Week, with blanked sailings set for the holiday period. Though there is no clear explanation for the surprisingly resilient demand, the absence of tariff hikes in late July and an increase in data center hardware volumes may both be contributing. Tariff refunds that are enabling some retailers to reduce prices may also be spurring some retailers to increase inventories.
Coming Panama Canal, low water restrictions have some carriers planning surcharges for transiting containers in September, which could add pressure on some East Coast rates soon.
Another likely contributor to elevated transpacific container rates is the unrelenting congestion in major Far East hubs from the succession of typhoons that have hit the region since mid-July. The latest, Typhoon Saudel, closed ports including Shanghai and Ningbo for several days last week, disrupted operations as far north as Busan and could stay strong enough to impact Shenzhen later this week.
The series of storms has prevented impacted ports from completely clearing backlogs before new shutdowns, with as many as ninety ships waiting more than a week for a slot in Shanghai, and carriers skipping calls at backed up ports leading to increased transhipment volumes at other ports in the region.
Far East congestion – as well as N. Europe hub backlogs, partly due to low, but improving, water levels in the Rhine – is also a factor to current Asia - Europe rate levels. Prices have cooled on easing demand since mid-July but capacity constraints may be helping rates remain above pre-peak levels. Asia - N. Europe prices have fallen more than $1,000/FEU since their July peak, but at $4,600/FEU are up about 70% compared to before the early start of peak season in mid-May. Rates at $4,800/FEU to the Mediterranean are down more than $2,000/FEU but are still 40% higher than three months ago.
Transatlantic rates climbed $400/FEU in the last two weeks to $2,600/FEU as carriers reduce capacity on the lane. Several carriers are planning additional, significant price increases for September, though some observers are skeptical that these rate hikes will stick.
In air cargo, the Freightos Air Index global benchmark eased 10% last week, but remains more than 20% higher than a year ago due to elevated fuel costs and some lingering capacity constraints. Far East - US rates eased 7% to about $6.00/kg and prices to Europe ticked up 1% to $4.60/kg last week, though both lanes are trending up so far this week, possibly due, once again, to typhoon-driven disruptions.
