The level of for-hire freight shipments in July measured by the Freight TSI (128.9) was 2.5% above the recent April low (125.7) but still 8.8% below the all-time high level of 141.3 in August 2019 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.
The June index was revised to 128.5 from 128.3 in last month’s release. Monthly numbers for January and May were revised down slightly. February and April were revised up slightly.
BTS is withholding the scheduled release of the passenger and combined indexes for July. The passenger index for June is a statistical estimate of airline passenger travel and other components based on historical trends up to June 2020. The statistical estimate does not fully account for the rapidly changing impacts of the coronavirus on the historical trend. Air freight for July is also a statistical estimate. Since air freight makes up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight estimate included. The June passenger and combined indexes are available on the BTS website.
The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasons from month-to-month comparisons.
Analysis: The Freight TSI rose 0.3% in July from June due to growth in rail intermodal, rail carload, water, and pipeline, despite declines in air freight and trucking. The July increase took place against the background of growth in several other indicators.
The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was up by 1.6 points to 54.1, indicating accelerating growth in manufacturing. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index grew 3.0% in June reflecting an increase of 3.4% in manufacturing, 3.3% in utilities and 0.8% in mining. Housing starts increased by 22.6%.
Personal Income was up 0.4%, in part reflecting a decrease in federal economic recovery payments as noted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Although the July Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the difficulty of estimating air passenger miles and other modes, the June index is now being released. The index increased 33.9% from May to June, the second consecutive increase following two months of decline, which left it below any level the Passenger TSI had been before the pandemic for the third consecutive month. All the passenger modes were up in June.
Trend: The July increase in the Freight index was the third consecutive monthly increase following three consecutive decreases. The index remained 5.3% below its pre-pandemic level in February, and 5.8% below its recent peak in January. It is now down 8.8% below its all-time high in August 2019. The index was below the levels of every month from October 2017 to March 2020 for the fourth consecutive month. However, it was above every level before August 2017 when the index reached 128.9, the same level that it returned to in July 2020. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.
Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in July 2020 (128.9) were 35.8% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (94.9). The July 2020 level was 8.8% below the historic peak reached in August 2019 (141.3) (Table 1A).
Year-to-date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were down 5.6% in July compared to the end of 2019 (Table 3).
Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 5.1% in the five years from July 2015 and are up 20.5% in the 10 years from July 2010 (Table 5).
Same month of previous year: July 2020 for-hire freight shipments were down 7.8% from July 2019 (Tables 4, 5).
The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the August 2020 index is scheduled for Oct. 15.
Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.
BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database.
