The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, fell 1.2% in March from February, falling for the first month after a one month increase, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). From March 2023 to March 2024 the index fell 1.0%.

The level of for-hire freight shipments in March measured by the Freight TSI (136.2) was 3.6% below the all-time high of 141.3 reached in August 2022. BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000.

The February index was revised to 137.9 from 138.1 in last month's release.

BTS will release the passenger and combined indexes for March next month, because air passenger travel continues to deviate from regular seasonal patterns, as it adjusts to the effects induced by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Air freight and waterborne for March are also statistical estimates. Since air freight and waterborne make up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight and waterborne estimate included.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons.

Analysis: The Freight TSI decreased in March due to seasonally adjusted decreases in trucking, air freight, rail carload, rail intermodal, and water while pipeline grew.

The March decrease came in the context of mixed results for several other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index grew by 0.4% in March, reflecting increases of 2.0% in utilities and 0.5% in manufacturing, while mining declined by 1.4%. Housing starts were down 14.7% while personal income increased by 0.5%.

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was up 2.5 points to 50.3, indicating growth in manufacturing, for the first time in 17 months. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of U.S. manufacturing, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.

Although the March Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the February index is now being released. The index increased 1.4% from January to February. Seasonally adjusted transit, rail and air passenger all grew.

The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for thirty-three months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 48th consecutive month.

Trend: The March freight index decrease was the fifth in seven months, leaving the index 1.8% below its level in August 2023. It followed an increase in February, leaving the index 1.7% above its level in January 2024. The index increased 2.3% since August 2021. The March Freight TSI exceeds the pandemic low in April 2020 by 9.7%; the index increased month-over-month in 26 of the 47 months since that low.

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in March 2024 (136.2) were 43.4% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.0). The March 2024 level was 3.6% below the historic peak (since 2000) reached in August 2022 (141.3).

Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were down 1.4% in March compared to the end of 2023.

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are down 0.6% in the five years from March 2019 and are up 13.4% in the 10 years from March 2014.

Same month of previous year: March 2024 for-hire freight shipments were down 1.0% from March 2023 (Tables 4, 5).

1st quarter changes: The freight TSI fell 1.4% in the 1st quarter.

The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes.