Britain is nearing a breakthrough with a major rail union in an attempt to end persistent train strikes that started last summer.

The TSSA labor group is expected to recommend its members accept the latest pay offer, a person familiar with the situation said.

Train companies last month offered guards and other on-board staff a 5% pay increase or a £1,750 ($2,152) raise — whichever is greater — for the current fiscal year, followed by a 4% raise next year. The TSSA has around 18,000 members but not all are party to this dispute or covered by this pay deal.

The RMT union, which represents more than 40,000 rail staff, is still considering the same pay offer. The deals include some changes to working conditions.

A separate dispute with train drivers is ongoing and they could call for further strikes. While a small number of train drivers belong to the RMT, most are members of a separate union — Aslef — which is holding out for a better raise.

Mass Walkouts

Nonetheless, the progress in talks with the TSSA will come as a relief to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, whose administration has been grappling with a wave of industrial strife across the transport network, National Health Service, civil service, and other parts of the public sector.  

Firefighters called off the threat of industrial action this week after receiving an improved pay offer.

An end to the TSSA dispute would also be a mark of success for Transport Secretary Mark Harper, especially if the RMT follows. Harper has taken a less bellicose approach to the unions than some predecessors since coming into the post in October and had authorized the Rail Delivery Group representing 14 train operators to improve their offer on pay and conditions.