October reflects a North American drayage market transitioning out of peak season, but inland transportation pressure has not eased at the same pace as ocean demand. While international container bookings are beginning to soften, trucking capacity remains constrained and higher diesel costs continue to support elevated drayage costs. The National Drayage Spot Market Index is expected to remain 9.8% higher year-over-year through October.

The disconnect between ocean demand and inland activity remains important. Containers moving through terminals today were largely booked several weeks ago, meaning softer ocean bookings have not yet translated into lower drayage volume. Our national drayage demand index is currently running 18% above the past six months and 9% above the past four weeks, keeping terminal and inland conditions elevated through October.

Ocean markets are also entering a more volatile period following China’s Golden Week. Declining cargo demand and excess vessel capacity could lead carriers to adjust schedules through blank sailings, rolled cargo and service changes. These adjustments can create uneven vessel arrivals and concentrated container flows at North American gateways even as overall import demand begins to moderate.

Fuel remains one of the most significant cost pressures. National on-highway diesel averaged $6.382 per gallon in the week of September 28, while tight trucking capacity, terminal queue time and appointment constraints continue to affect drayage economics. For importers, effective free-time management, appointment planning and empty-return coordination remain critical to controlling exposure to demurrage, detention and storage charges.

For the drayage sector, October is a transition month rather than an immediate return to softer market conditions. Importers should continue planning capacity early and closely monitoring vessel schedules, terminal availability, fuel costs and container free time as the market moves toward November.