A broad, demand-driven market expansion this week. The BDI advanced to 3,628 points, supported by positive momentum across all four vessel classes. Capesize led the charge, with C3 (Tubarao–Qingdao) reaching a multi-year high on 4 September — now trading approximately 70% above its September 2025 average. The simultaneous growth in freight rates and available ballaster capacity indicates that market strength is attributable to expanding demand rather than constrained vessel supply.

CAPESIZE SPOTLIGHT · WEEK 36, 2026

The Atlantic leads; newbuilding orders at a multi-year high.

C3 TUBARAO–QINGDAO

$41.55/mt

Multi-year high. Up $3.19 WoW (+~8%), ~70% above Sep 2025 average of $24.50/mt.

2026 NEWBUILDING ORDERS

123 vessels

Already exceeds full-year 2024 (103) and 2025 (115). ~117 at Chinese yards.

Tubarao–China sailings over January–August total 127, up from 110 in 2025 and 90 in 2024 (+~15% year-on-year). Longer-haul southern cargo keeps Capesizes employed for more tonne-days, tightening the Atlantic even without a headline volume surge.

SEGMENT SCORECARD

Capesize - SHARPLY HIGHER

BCI 6,286 (+950 WoW). Average C5TC earnings rose to approximately $53,508/day (+$8,612 WoW). The Atlantic led: C3 (Tubarao–Qingdao) climbed to $41.55/mt (+$3.19 WoW) — a multi-year high — while C5 (West Australia–Qingdao) added $2.03 WoW to $18.21/mt. C3 supply now sits below expected demand across the whole forward window — a clear supportive shift behind the rally. The global Capesize ballaster count rose 9% WoW to 624, with builds in Australasia (+17%), South Atlantic (+17%) and North Atlantic (+16%).

Panamax - FIRMER

BPI 2,448 (+133 WoW). P5TC average gained $1,201 WoW to $22,035/day. The rally was broad, led by the Pacific — P3A_82 and P5_82 the strongest movers — with grain routes also firmer. P3 and P6 show the clearest tightening in the forward balance, with expected demand rising above cumulative supply. The global Panamax ballaster count rose 10% WoW to 820.

Supramax - FIRMER

BSI 1,675 (+28 WoW). Led by the US Gulf — S1C and S4A the strongest routes — with Asia routes also higher. S10TC average rose $358 WoW to $19,143/day. However, S4A/S1C, S4B and S8/S10 all carry cumulative supply surpluses in the forward balance — the rate strength is running ahead of fundamentals. The global Supramax ballaster count jumped 24% WoW to 772, the largest build of any segment.

Handysize - FIRMER

BHSI 900 (+19 WoW). Led by an Atlantic rebound — Rio de Janeiro–Recalada and US Gulf the strongest routes — with the Pacific modestly higher. HS7TC average gained $344 WoW to $16,199/day. The segment stayed broadly oversupplied: HS1/HS2, HS5 and HS6 all carry cumulative supply surpluses, and HS7 (Far East) has loosened into a surplus after leading tight in recent weeks. Global Handysize ballasters rose 9% WoW to 714.

CONCLUSIONS

Key takeaway: The rally is stronger at the top end of the market. Capesize and Panamax rate gains are accompanied by forward supply deficits on C3 and several Panamax routes. Supramax and Handysize rates also moved higher, but most of their route balances continue to show surplus tonnage, while their demand-to-supply indicators remain below 1.00. The findings therefore point to a two-speed market, with the larger vessel segments showing stronger alignment between freight performance and forward fundamentals than the smaller sizes.