Market Overview: September 8, 2026

- Spot rates have started moving higher again and are currently around $3.38 per mile, following the cooling seen in mid-August.

- Tender rejections have increased to approximately 14.4% after easing for the past several weeks, while capacity remains limited.

- Truckload volumes have remained fairly steady in recent weeks but are 4-5% below last year, pointing to softer overall freight demand.

- Diesel remains near 2026 peak rates at $5.59 per gallon, keeping fuel surcharges and carrier operating costs elevated.

What This Means for the Market

- The market tightened heading into Labor Day. Spot rates and rejections are rising again, even though there is not significantly more freight moving. This suggests that capacity is still constrained, which gives carriers more choice over the loads they accept, and that keeps shipping costs elevated.

- Labor Day added another short-term test for capacity. Holiday periods typically reduce available capacity for a short time, so some increase in rates and rejections is expected. Intermodal is still helping absorb some longer-distance freight. U.S. intermodal volumes were 6-7% higher YoY, giving shippers another option where rail service and transit times work for the shipment.

Areas to Watch

- What happens after Labor Day: A short holiday-related increase in rates is normal. If rates and rejections stay elevated after the holiday, it could signal a very volatile peak season next quarter.

- Truck availability versus freight demand: Volumes remain below last year, yet rates are increasing. If demand increases, we could expect additional increases in rates and tender rejections.

- Intermodal growth: Rail volumes continue to run above last year. Continued mode switching to intermodal could help take some pressure off long-haul truckload freight.

Strategic Considerations

- Plan around holiday and peak-season disruptions: Give carriers more notice on important or time-sensitive shipments and avoid relying on last-minute coverage where possible.

- Keep alternative options available: Review intermodal for longer-haul freight that has some flexibility in transit time, particularly on lanes where truckload pricing remains high.

- Prepare budgets for continued higher costs: Softer freight demand has not brought rates back down significantly. Shippers should continue planning for higher transportation costs through the near term, especially on lanes with limited carrier availability.