FTR reports US trailer orders increased in July which along with rising contract rates, indicates a further tightening of capacity in 2026.
This July, the FTR, a freight transportation leader in forecasting for shipping, trucking, rail, intermodal, equipment and financial communities in North America, reported that rather than the lull usually brought by the summer, heavy-duty trailer orders actually moved higher. At 16,862 units, net orders increased 22% month/month and by 130% year/year. The 10-year average for July is 13,665, meaning that there was a 23% increase for that month. The increase implies a firmer demand backdrop, although nothing will be set in stone until September, when the 2027 order season begins. The current trailer order season net orders went up 5% from the previous season this July, and the YTD net orders shot up by 25% year-over-year.
This was the opposite of how production numbers were during this July. At 16,195 units, build has fallen by 11% month-over-month and by 9% year-to-year. The YTD output, down 1% from last year was 113,969.
“Freight Fundamentals Improving”
If the FTR is correct that contract rates will continue to rise as tightening capacity is shifting the pricing power to the motor carriers over the shippers. But as the situation for all forms of shipping and transportation both inside and out of North America remains unstable, contract rates may rise, even if the overall freight demand does not.
There are several different pieces that may have come into play, creating these changes. Dan Moyer added, “Meanwhile, trade-related cost pressures continue to build on multiple fronts, including April’s changes on how Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum are applied and the ongoing antidumping and countervailing duty investigations related specifically to van equipment sourced from Mexico, Canada, and China. These developments could benefit domestic trailer manufacturers, but fleets likely will see higher costs. Overall, these actions are more likely to change where trailers and components are sourced, what they cost, and when fleets order than to create additional underlying demand.”
Tariffs and other Impacts
Tariffs have been widely discussed. The impact of the ever-changing tariff situation has been hard on every industry, with trailers being heavily impacted. Steel and aluminum are important components in any trailer. The costs of sourcing these materials are likely to get pushed onto the fleets using the trailers, once the manufacturers finish the trailers to sell. On top of that, the anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations cause more wrinkles in everyone’s plans, complicating an already complicated series of processes even more than it already was. If the trailers themselves increase in price, this could have long-term ramifications for both the trucking fleets, and the companies reliant upon those fleets for the transportation of goods. Another issue is rising gas prices. Fleets must carefully balance the costs versus the payments to come out ahead, and that gets trickier every day. Unfortunately, there is no good answer. Fleets do not have the power to control the gas prices, and so this is simply an issue everyone will have to work around.
The changing of where components are being sourced from will have a massive impact on the costs of trailers. Companies must choose between either eating the tariff cost to maintain their original supply chains or venturing out into the unknown. Choosing to shift their sourcing may also lead to higher costs, as companies can take advantage of being the safest option in the current market to increase the prices of their materials. Again, all of this will trickle down, increasing the costs at every point along the way.
It is important that the FTR continues to track and report this information. With the market’s current volatility, being able to have accurate statistics on the ups and downs is truly vital. From August 31st to September 3rd, the 2026 FTR Transportation conference will be held in Indianapolis, Indiana. August 31st will be an entire day dedicated to the commercial vehicle market discussions and forecasts. This is an important opportunity for anyone with an interest in the commercial vehicle market. Keeping up to date helps everyone manage their situations with just that much more safety, which also benefits each company that they work with as well. Using this information allows members of the industry to work together, which can keep costs from overwhelming any one company.
In the end, this data presents us with an optimistic outlook for the upcoming 2027 order season. With any luck, the trends represented will continue, with net orders either remaining steady or potentially increasing.
