Will the world’s top 100 container ports continue to grow in 2025? The outlook is foggy.
The Port of Shanghai, once again leading the AJOT’s Top 100 Container Port list, in 2024 handled a remarkable 50 million TEUs — the first port ever to do so. The achievement speaks volumes not only for the Port of Shanghai but all container ports. Could the globalization of the last half century occur without the box and without the container ports of the world shifting unfathomable volumes of goods? Probably not.
The question now is whether tariffs and the global trade war will sabotage the growth in ocean freight that has characterized the last half century? There have been slumps associated with economic downturns as with the Great Recession in 2008 or more recently with the COVID-19 pandemic – March of 2020 to May of 2023. However, the size of containerships have grown as have the container terminals handling them.
The Chinese ports of Shenzhen (South China) and Qingdao (North China) 33.39 million TEUs and 30.87 million TEUs respectively round out the 30 million TEU ports. And while most of China’s entries on the Top 100 list are growing, Hong Kong is slowly slipping back. In 2024 Hong Kong handled 13.69 million TEUs down from the 16.57 million TEUs handled in 2022. With the new ocean carrier alliance structure emphasizing more hub and spoke services, the numbers could slip even further as the port is bypassed for calls in Shenzhen and Guangzhou on the Pearl River. The Port of Busan in South Korea, (ranked number 7 on the chart) is in a similar position as some alliances elect to call on just one or two north Asia ports.
The “Plus” Trend
The “China “Plus” 1, 2, 3 strategy or more has been underway for years now as importers have diversified their supply chains away from China. However, as James Hookham, director of the Global Shippers Forum pointed out in an AJOT interview with Stuart Todd, China’s manufacturers have also shifted and more often it is a “China+China-abroad” move rather than a total abstinence to China sourcing. Nonetheless, the Trump administration’s all-out global tariff blitz has made international trade more complex. And the diversification of the supply chain has had a major impact on container port development, and it shows in the Top 100 chart. Foremost among the beneficiaries is the two port clusters in Vietnam Ho Chi Minh (Cat Lai) ranked 24th and Ci Mep-Thi Vai ranked 32nd. Recently, CMA CGM announced that they would be building a new terminal in partnership with Saigon Newport in Haiphong in northern Vietnam. The new terminal would have a capacity of 1.9 million TEUs and is scheduled to open in 2028.
Vietnam’s port sector is growing fast but isn’t alone. Laem Chabang in Thailand ranked 20th with 9.46 million TEUs and could find itself in the top 10 in the not-too-distant future. Port Klang number 10 on the list with 14.64 million TEUs in Malaysia has also benefited from the shift in sourcing as have ports like Laem Chabang in Thailand number 20 with 9.46 million TEUs. And with the recent growth Laem Chabang could find itself in top 10 in the not-too-distant future, assuming Thailand’s economy continues to grow and avoids the worst of the tariff complications. Indonesia has also become a major sourcing area and the ports of Tanjung Priok at 7.6 million TEUs and Tanjung Perak at 4.05 million TEUs ranking 27th and 49th reflect the industrial shift out of China. And like Thailand a lot will depend on how the country navigates U.S. tariffs.
Another trend expressed in the port chart is the rise of the Indian Subcontinent ports. Colombo in Sri Lanka is 26th with 7.78 million TEUs, with the Indian ports of Mundra at 7.0 million TEUs and Jawaharlal Nehru 7.06 million TEUs ranked 28th and 29th respectively. The Port of Chittagong in Bangladesh has also benefitted from the boom in Subcontinent business and handled nearly 3.28 million TEUs ranking 63rd in this year’s chart.
Middle East Ports and Mediterranean
There is little doubt that the throughout for ports in the Middle East and Mediterranean have been adversely impacted by the Houthis attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea and adjacent Gulf of Aden entrance to the Arabian Sea. Some reports suggest that Suez Canal traffic is down as much as 65% and it is worth noting that 30% global box traffic is estimated to pass through the Canal in an average year.
As a result of the strife much of the Asia-Europe containership traffic has avoided the Suez Canal transit and subsequently been rerouted around Africa to avoid being targeted by the Houthis. This has dampened some of the growth in the region’s ports but also shown their resilience. Take for example the Saudi port of Jeddah and the Dubai port of Jebel Ali — one on the Red Sea and the other on the Persian Gulf. 33rd ranked Jeddah’s numbers were flat in 2024 while the Port of Jebel Ali continued to climb and now is number 9 in the rankings. But the Saudi King Abdullah port [part of the new economic zone] has hit 3.5 million TEUs and is 57th in the rankings. Notably the Port of Dammam, another Saudi port located on the Persian Gulf got a nice boost in 2024 and cleared the 3 million TEU mark, good for 65 on the list — in part due to being a staging area for work-around for the troubles in the Red Sea.
The Mediterranean ports fared well considering the traffic impact of the Suez Canal. The Moroccan transshipment hub port of Tanger Med made a big jump and eclipsed the 10 million TEU mark [8.62 million in 2023 to 10.24 in 2024]. However, another hub port Marsaxlokk on the island of Malta didn’t fare as well dropping from 2.99 million TEUs in 2023 to 2.86 million TEUs in 2024. Another hub port Gioia Tauro, in Italy had a throughput of 3.94 million TEUs in 2024 up from 3.55 million in 2023.
Still, many of the other Med ports had good years. The ports of Valencia (37), Barcelona (52), Le Havre [HARPOA] (64), Piraeus, Genoa (72), Marseilles-Fos (93) and La Spezia (98), along with the Turkish ports led by Ambarli (66) all had surprisingly good years.
European Ports
Europe’s ports have been challenged on three fronts: the China trade disputes, the disruption caused by Houthis missile campaign in the Red Sea and more recently the tariff war unleashed by the Trump Administration. For the most part, the throughput at Europe’s ports was relatively flat. Rotterdam, Europe’s largest port ranked 11th, handled 13.8 million TEUs in 2024 up slightly compared to 2023’s 13.45 million TEUs. The Port of Antwerp-Bruges (13) after a relative down year in 2023, 12.53 million TEUs bounced back with 13.5 million TEUs in 2024. The Port of Hamburg, ranked 25th on the list, with strong Asia service portfolio also had a relatively flat year, 7.8 million TEUs in 2024 compared to 7.7 million TEUs in 2023. But in 2022 the German port handled 8.26 million TEUs. Another German port Bremerhaven posted a good year in 2024 with a throughout of 4.45 million TEUs. This was up from the 4.19 million TEUs in 2023. Sines in Portugal, ranked 87th had a very good year in ’24 with a throughput 1.91 million TEUs compared to 1.67 million TEUs 2024.
US Ports: Trouble Ahead?
The combination of the tariffs and the aspects of the proposed SHIPS act could spell trouble in the second half of 2025 for US container ports. The West Coast ports have already experienced a downturn while the East Coast and Gulf have yet to feel the same degree of decline. There is the fear among US port executives that ‘blank sailings’ — essentially ocean carrier alliances skipping scheduled port calls — will become commonplace and schedule integrity will deteriorate. It has become a tool in the ocean carrier toolbox [along with slow steaming] to manage capacity and thereby promote rate stability.
And besides the potential loss of ship calls to US ports there is proposed legislation that endangers port aspects of funding. In June the American Association of Port Authorities (AAPA) sent a letter to “Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Committee on Environment and Public Works Chair Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) urging them to … defend two critical Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) grant programs.”
If the US House of Representatives version of the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ were to pass the “Clean Ports Program” and the “Diesel Emissions Reduction Act” (DERA) grant programs would be cut from EPA’s budget. The AAPA believes both programs are essential for American ports in acquiring the newest models of equipment and American manufacturers working to build back market share. The DERA grant program provides funding for ports to acquire fuel-efficient diesel engines and like Clean Ports, DERA is also subject to strict ‘Build America, Buy America’ standards.
In the letter, AAPA President and CEO Cary Davis stressed the manufacturing benefits of the Clean Ports Program, which already “is creating jobs in America and giving American manufacturers new life in a sector long dominated by China: port cargo-handling equipment.”
The regulatory threats to US ports have also been noted by Fitch Ratings. Fitch in a June 13th release wrote, “North America’s port sector faces worsening credit pressures due to slowing economic activity and inflationary pressures. Tariff policies increase costs for consumers, reducing demand and industry growth prospects.”
Prospects for 2025 and Beyond
At this moment, the overall prospects in 2025 and beyond for not only US ports but also globally, is at best foggy. Questions such as will US tariff blitz on the world continue? Can the US and China find common ground on trade? How will the geopolitical issues of the Middle East or the Ukraine – Russia conflict impact global trade?
How these questions and others are answered in the second half of 2025 could very well define how container ports perform this year and beyond.
