Earlier this summer, a media report described the ocean trade between Europe and North America as “a pocket of stability amid global maritime chaos,” the conflict in the Middle East and disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz having triggered volatility on several major trade lanes.
With input from executives from two leading industry players, one an ocean carrier and the other a forwarder, AJOT took a deep dive into market fundamentals on the transatlantic trade and the current trends, while also assessing the impact of US import tariffs on traffic volumes.
Based on data from Eurostat, in 2025, the EU’s leading exports to the US were pharmaceutical and healthcare products, followed by road vehicles, general industrial machinery and equipment, electrical machinery and equipment, and power-generating machinery and equipment.
In the opposite direction, Europe’s main imports from the US include medicinal and pharmaceutical products, petroleum and petroleum products, power-generating machinery and equipment, natural gas, and other transport equipment.
Westbound is traditionally the Transatlantic’s headhaul due to continued strength in European exports. Eastbound demand has been softer, reflecting weaker European import demand, currency effects, and uncertainty around trade policy.
‘Steady But Not Insulated from Global Shocks’
Compared to the “extreme volatility” seen on some other major east–west trades, the transatlantic has been relatively steady, according to Andreas Laube, Director, Trade Management Atlantic/North Europe, at German container shipping line, Hapag-Lloyd.
“It benefits from a diversified cargo mix, shorter transit times and a more mature demand profile. That said, it’s not insulated from global shocks—policy changes, fuel and energy costs, and broader macro demand can still move the market quickly.”
Casper Ellerbaek, EVP and Global Head of Ocean Freight DHL Global Forwarding (DGF), noted that operationally, the Transatlantic trade has become more stable, with schedule reliability returning to respectable levels following the winter disruptions while the relative absence of severe congestion at North American ports has also supported performance.
“However, the market is not uniformly-balanced. Europe-to-North America capacity has tightened considerably, and DHL’s short-term outlook anticipates that this tightness will continue through the coming months. By contrast, the eastbound direction remains considerably looser, and capacity continues to exceed demand.
“Peak-season surcharges have also recently been extended to the transatlantic westbound trade. While it would be fair to describe the Transatlantic trade as a pocket of relative operational stability, it is not insulated from the wider volatility affecting ocean freight markets.”
Traffic Trends
Looking at some of the latest data on the Transatlantic trade, Europe’s biggest port, Rotterdam, showed a 9.2% increase in containerized exports to the US in the first half of 2026.
However, Rico Luman, Senior Sector Economist, at Dutch bank ING, specializing in transport, logistics and the automotive industry, played down the apparent solid growth performance.
“This is probably the result of a restructuring in sailing schedules. 2026 was the first full H1 of the Gemini alliance of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd and may have resulted in more calls in Rotterdam. Europe’s second largest port Antwerp-Bruges, in Belgium, which has the most intensive trade links with the US reported a 16.5% decline in full containers to the US.”
The Port Authority confirmed the figure which it said, “clearly shows the impact of US import tariffs.”
Luman added: “The bottom line is EU trade flows to the US contracted in H1 2026.”
‘Rates Have Recovered and Moved Higher’
Turning to rates on the Transatlantic have been relatively stable compared with those on Asia-Europe and Transpacific lanes, Hapag-Lloyd’s Laube observed.
“Rates have recovered and moved higher due to capacity reductions and improved vessel utilization, especially on the westbound leg, but there has been no significant rate explosion. Current market dynamics point more toward controlled strengthening than a true peak-season-driven surge.”
DGF’s Ellerbaek concurred. “Transatlantic rates have not experienced the same dramatic increases seen on the Asia-Europe and Transpacific trades. However, it would no longer be accurate to characterize rates across the whole Transatlantic market as simply stable.
“On the westbound trade, tightening space and carrier capacity management have placed rates under upward pressure. As already alluded to, carriers recently expanded peak season surcharges to Europe-to-North America, reflecting the reduced availability of space and the risk of cargo being rolled. The eastbound market remains softer because capacity continues to exceed demand. Overall, the increase remains less pronounced than on the main Asia export trades, but the westbound market has clearly tightened.”
Front-Loading and SC adjustments
As for US import tariffs, Laube recognized that they had negatively impacted sentiment and growth prospects but had not fundamentally disrupted the Transatlantic trade.
“The main effect, beside increased uncertainty, has been some cargo front-loading and supply-chain adjustments, while overall volumes and market fundamentals have remained relatively resilient.”
DGF’s Ellerbaek said there had been clear evidence that US tariff uncertainty had encouraged earlier inventory decisions generally and led importers to accelerate shipments into North America.
“But this was primarily related to Transpacific cargo moving through US West Coast ports. Based on available data, we cannot substantiate.” significant front-loading specifically from Europe. Any such effect appears more limited than on Asia-to-US trades.”
EU Auto Exports To US
One of the key exports from Europe on the Transatlantic trade are finished vehicles. 2025 was a year which saw significant front-loading activity, especially in the first quarter, ahead of US import tariffs and also towards the end of the year for EV sales, before Inflation Reduction Act IRA subsidies were removed.
“The import tariffs on EU vehicles into the US were particularly hard on brands such as Porsche which doesn’t produce vehicles locally, in contrast to the likes of BMW and Mercedes who do,” said Luman.
Q1 data from Eurostat showed YoY declines in EU automobile exports to the US of 11.9% in volume and 28.3% in value. Figures are not yet available for H1.
Asked whether this could be partly explained by front-loading, Luman replied: “That has definitely been a factor in Q1, but it also reflects a more structural impact with trade barriers now being higher. European automakers have looked into work around options to raise production in the US without immediate bold investments in new plants, but that’s not possible across the board for all models.
“EU-US auto exports to the Q2 will probably be in line with Q1, though probably slightly better as US new car sales have been less negative YoY.”
Near-Term Outlook
As to how the Transatlantic trade is likely to play out over the coming months, Laube anticipates a seasonally-driven market with ‘pockets of tightening’ around peak weeks, but without the kind of extreme swings seen on some other trades – unless there is a new external shock.
“The key variables to watch are US and EU demand, inventory behavior, and trade policy developments. Customers are prioritizing predictability, so service reliability and end-to-end planning will remain central.”
The near-term outlook was “stable to slightly positive” supply and demand being currently better aligned than in previous periods, supporting utilization and rates.
“While trade policy and macroeconomic risks persist, the Transatlantic market is expected to remain one of the more balanced and operationally stable East-West trades in the months ahead.”
For Ellerbaek, the outlook is “constructive operationally but increasingly uneven commercially.”
Schedule reliability should remain comparatively respectable, particularly while North American ports avoid the severe congestion currently affecting parts of Europe and Asia, he observed.
However, Europe-to-North America capacity is expected to remain tight in the coming months, supporting firm rates and peak season surcharges. The eastbound trade should remain softer, with available capacity exceeding demand.
“The principal risks are continued European port and inland congestion, further carrier capacity redeployment, bunker price volatility linked to geopolitical developments, and changes in US tariff policy. Overall, the Transatlantic should remain more stable than many Asia export corridors, but it should no longer be described as uniformly-balanced,” Ellerbaek concluded.
