Twenty-four trends, topics, and thoughts on potential headline makers for 2024
Editor’s Note: What’s in store for 2024? We have an early sampling of what might be the headliners for the next 12 months. Already we’ve seen significant disruption in shipping due to the combination of low water in the Panama Canal and the Houthis choking access to the Red Sea, effectively cutting off the Suez Canal from the Asia-Europe trade lane. And freight rates have skyrocketed in reaction to the circuitous alternative routings around Africa.
And it doesn’t help that the war between Ukraine and Russia is still slogging on and that the Israeli-Hamas conflict in Gaza is far from resolved…and has the potential to expand as the Houthis have demonstrated. If there is another disruption, whether it is a natural incident such as a hurricane or COVID-19 like event, or another geo-political instance, how will the supply chain adjust to the impacts?
And there is always the economic fallout. Is another recession on the way? Can we control inflation or deflation?
Some other international trade and transportation issues are also beginning to percolate, like a potential East and Gulf coasts labor dispute between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and waterfront management.
There are other topics like AI (Artificial Intelligence) that are destined to be in the headlines over the remaining weeks of 2024. And finally, it’s hard to overlook the US Presidential elections and what impacts they will have on trade in 2024… and beyond.
Below are 24 trends and topic ideas for 2024.
1. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the Supply Chain
There was an AI New York 2023 Summit and consensus believes that AI will soon become the “normal” and that no large industry will not be impacted by AI.
2. What’s Next After 5G? (6G) and what does it mean for logistics?
6G networks will use higher frequencies and have higher capacity than 5G. It is expected to facilitate large improvements in the areas of imaging, presence technology and location awareness. 6G expected to compliment AI.
3. E-Commerce Challenge
It’s estimated that e-commerce will grow by a 9% compound annual growth rate through 2027, compared to the projected 4% for brick-and-mortar retail. Can the supply chain keep pace with e-commerce? Will e-commerce growth slow if customer expectations are not met?
4. Cyber Threats: The other choke point
Cyber threats to the supply chain are growing and reach both large and small providers. With the ability to cripple the movement of goods, is the Cyber threat becoming “the other choke point” in global commerce?
5. Chips and Dips: Could the chip dispute trigger dips in automotive manufacturing
Back in 2020 a chip shortage triggered a global automotive manufacturing slowdown. The US produces around 19% of the world’s chips while 75% produced in East Asia. The CHIPS and Science Act was passed to bring chip manufacturing to the US. Will it be enough and fast enough to keep pace with automotive manufacturing as it shifts gears to EVs?
6. Houthis and the Red Sea: Free passage now and then
The Houthis missile and drone attacks (like the usage in the Ukraine-Russia war) show just how exposed ocean routes are to long range strikes. Opening up a question of “free passage” vulnerability.
7. Enter the Dragon: China, the US, decoupling the global economy
The decoupling of the world’s two largest economies is an ongoing story that will continue to make headlines in 2024.
8. Tale of Two Canals: Suez and Panama
The Panama Canal’s low water has slashed transits by 36%: When will it rain?
As noted above the Houthis have effectively cut the Suez Canal out of the supply chain. What are the alternative routes?
9. South China Sea Clash: Dots, dashes & slow passage
The dispute between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea is pulling in the US and the question of Free Passage.
10. Offshore Headwinds: Downturn in offshore wind power…. freshening breeze in the forecast?
Offshore wind power hit some headwinds in 2023 with inflation and other factors. Will 2024 be a better year for offshore wind power?
11. The Nuclear Option
With the need to generate more clean energy, is the nuclear power option being reconsidered?
12. The Road to Baku (COP 29): Carbon markets pave the way
Carbon markets could pave the way to transitioning to cleaner energy.
13. Here Comes the Sun: Solar power boom in 2024… and it’s alright
Solar power is expected to be the big “renewable” in the US in 2024.
14. Lighter Than Air: Does the hydrogen economy finally lift off
The hydrogen economy has long been talked about as the clean fuel that can solve the energy problem. But green hydrogen is a challenge. Does the Hydrogen economy finally lift off in 2024?
15. Is the heralded demise of King Coal premature?
With the number of coal fired plants being built in China and India, is the reports of the demise of King Coal premature?
16. Send In the Drones: DaaS – Drone Deliveries Plus
Drones are becoming big business and DaaS [Drones as a Service] might be the launch of new logistics sector.
17. Autonomous Trucks: Is an autonomous truck coming to a highway near you?
Autonomous trucks are already being tested. How far away is large scale deployment?
18. ZET (Zero Emissions Trucks): How far away is a practical ZET?
Zero Emissions Trucks (ZETs) are already in production but how close are they to being practical for long haul trucking?
19. Is there another Yellow Freight collapse out there?
Yellow Freight’s collapse was a shocker. It like other mega-corporations had an aura of being too big to fail. Is there another “Yellow Freight” out there in the logistics sector?
20. Freight Rates – Which way are they headed?
Trucking Freight rates have been bottoming out in 2023 with falling demand. Will they rebound in 2024? Ocean freight rates have soared with the disruptions in the Red Sea and Panama Canal. Will they continue to rise or will freight rates moderate in relation to overcapacity?
21. Consumer Spending: Can consumers power the economy in 2024?
Consumer spending has been attributed to preventing the US economy from slipping into recession, despite indicators to the contrary.
22. Labor – The Next Big Disruption
With the ILA - waterfront management contract negotiations stalled, is there another supply chain disruption looming?
23. Damage Control: Disruptions from natural causes
Hurricanes and other natural disasters seem to be hitting harder and more often. Is the supply chain preparing itself well enough for the worst?
24. Global Growth Projected to Fall
The IMF says global growth is projected to fall three percent in 2024. Will the slow growth lead to lower volumes in international trade or to the contrary, will trade lift then global economy in 2024?
