The peak season, which includes fall harvest and Christmas shipments and is critical for shipping company profitability, started around early July last year but this year is just getting going now.
"The big variable right now is what kind of peak season will we have in this country," Young said, who said demand should be clearer in this abbreviated period during the next three to six weeks.
The CEO of the No. 1 U.S. publicly held railroad company had expected this season to be more compressed and intense this year.
"I don't know if I would put the 'intense' on it right now but we clearly will see a peak and it's going to be compressed," he said in an interview. "The real wild card will be consumer confidence."
The company, which ships everything from grains, chemicals and coal to autos and household appliances, has slightly pared its hiring estimates.
It now looks to add a total of about 4,300 jobs this year, down from its prior view of up to 4,600 jobs. Much of that is to account for 4,000 jobs being lost to attrition.
Its total headcount of about 45,000 employees now is down from over 50,000 before the recession, but up from 41,000 in mid-2009.
"Where you could really get the intensity is inventories, which are really managed very tight and very low," said Young. "If we get any consumer demand you could see a pretty intense response to try and fill those orders."
Volume as measured by total revenue carloads rose 5 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, 3 percent in the second quarter and is up about 1 percent so far this quarter, said Young.
In addition to an economy that has failed to gain traction, the company has battled a persistent series of extreme weather events from tornadoes to hurricanes, blizzards and drought that impact its rail systems.
President Obama's new job creation proposal may have a limited immediate impact on consumer mind-set, Young said.
"When you start seeing some positives in the jobs picture -- the data -- that will be the time that maybe you start to see consumers gain more confidence."
Union Pacific expects that its diversification, and long-term efforts to convert shipping traffic from the highways to more fuel-efficient rails, will drive profitability.
The Omaha, Nebraska-based company's shares closed down 1.7 percent on Thursday at $88.20 on the New York Stock Exchange. (Reuters)
