22 American Journal of Transportation American Journal of Transportation ajot.com Florida produce sees opportunity with non-renewal of USMCA By Andrew Meadows, AJOT With the USMCA’s non-renewal, Florida’s produce industry finds itself once again engaged in difficult trade discussions. It is a recurring scene in a three-de- cade script that surfaces whenever North American trade agreements are on the table. This time, Florida fruit and vegetable growers remain opti- mistic that the door is open to defend their crops from what they see as policy favoring Mexico dating back to the original NAFTA. “The Florida Fruit and Vegetable Association (FFVA) is encouraged that the Administration chose not to renew USMCA in its current form and instead is using the review process to address shortcomings in the agree- ment. For Florida fruit and vegetable growers, the current structure has not provided a workable remedy for the surge of seasonal imports during our domestic production window,” said Mike Joyner, CEO of the Florida Fruit and Vegetable Association. “Taking the time to get the policy right is important – not just for growers, but for the long-term resilience of the US food supply.” In July, the Trump Administra- tion announced it would not support an extension of the USMCA, starting a 10-year phase-out. The agreement now mandates annual reviews before it expires unless Canada, Mexico, and the United States can broker a new agreement. Mexican Fruit Exports Under USMCA Mexican fruit and vegetable exports to the US accelerated under NAFTA and continued to increase sharply under the USMCA. Mexico and Florida share the same growing season from late fall to early spring, and producers compete directly to put tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, squash, blueberries, raspberries, and strawberries on US tables. Mexico exported $20.4 billion in fruit and vegetables to the United States in 2025, a 39% increase from 2020’s total of $14.6 billion, the first year of USMCA, according to the USDA’s Economic Research Ser- vice. In addition, Mexico’s ag sector significantly scaled up production of processed packaging, pre-cut mixes, and value-added retail kits. This has led to massive infrastruc- ture investments at critical border commerce points such as Laredo, TX, where new inspection facilities, bridge rebuilds, cold storage warehouses, and truck staging areas all support the expansion of interstate highways, rail connections, and logistics parks. Florida producers say the growth has been unfairly at their expense, citing Mexican government-spon- sored subsidies, dubious pricing practices, and low labor rates as the driving reasons behind the Mexican agricultural boom. “FFVA has consistently favored measures to curb Mexican imports during our season. Our recommended approach - seasonal, product-specific TRQs – would not stop imports or shut down the marketplace. It would continue to allow imports of Mexi- can produce, but not at levels that risk destroying U.S.-grown production during the fall to spring months of the year,” Joyner said. “The broader policy question is whether the United States wants to maintain a domestic supply during these key months, rather than become increasingly dependent on foreign suppliers for fresh produce when Florida and other U.S. growing regions are in season.” The Food Fight for Renewal of USMCA Working against Florida produc- ers is the fact that other farm orga- nizations across North America had been urging an early renewal of the USMCA, encouraged by increased cross-border business as US agricul- tural exports to Canada and Mexico including dairy, livestock feed, pork, and poultry. Robert Guenther, executive vice pres- ident of the Florida Tomato Exchange, said the Florida tomato industry sees the non-renewal of the USMCA as an opportunity to insist that trade be fair and free. “USMCA works for soybeans and corn; it works for auto parts and intel- lectual property. It has never worked for fresh seasonal produce. That is not an accident. It is a gap that was never filled. The 2026 review is the first real chance in a generation to close it. America cannot maintain a resilient food supply if we allow domestic fruit and vegetable production to disappear one crop at a time. A strong and diverse domestic produce industry is not pro- tectionism. It is an essential part of food security, rural economic stabil- ity and consumer resilience,” he said. “...efficient logistics and fair pricing aren’t in tension, they’re complemen- tary. (The Mexican) infrastructure investment is a good thing, and it will keep paying off regardless of the duty, because a modern cold chain moves fairly priced product just as well as it moves underpriced product. What genuinely slows a marketplace down over time is letting dumping hollow out domestic production until you’re dependent on a single foreign source; that’s when you get real volatility and real supply risk. Enforcing fair pricing protects the long-term health of the entire North American market these investments were built to serve. Good logistics and fair competition should reinforce each other, and that’s the market we’re working toward.” US Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-FL), vice-chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, has been pushing for seasonal protections. Seasonal Outlook: Trade Rate Quotas (TQR) Buchanan and the Florida produce industry want the current tools, such as anti-dumping and countervailing duties, to be evaluated on a narrow, seasonal basis rather than across the entire domestic industry nationwide. Using the entire annual domestic production skews the numbers when a regional or seasonal industry—such as Florida winter tomatoes or pep- pers— attempts to prove injury from imports. The broad numbers can con- ceal dumping. The key is to isolate (PRODUCE – continued on page 23) from the USMCA if its conditions were not met. Analysts feel that Mexico, com- pared to the combative Canadian approach, has taken a more concilia- tory approach and has held multiple talks with the US, with steel tariffs figuring prominently in the talks. This is also because of Mexico’s greater vulnerability to US tariffs; Mexico was the third-largest steel exporter to the US, shipping 3.5 mil- lion tons in 2024, or 12.2% of US steel imports, according to the US Commerce Department. Mexico’s exports have fallen since then, declin- ing by 51.7% to 551,361 million tons in the first quarter of 2026 over the year earlier period. The general view of individual experts is that the U.S. and Mexico are closer to reaching an understanding; pre- liminary — Mexico trade negotiations have been more pro- ductive on steel, alu- minum and autos, while only informal discussions were held with Canada. In keynote remarks, Cleveland-Cliffs CEO Lourenco Goncalves suggested that Mexico understands what is at stake better than Canada. “Mexico is simple,” he said, “Shut down the back door (for transshipped steel imports). Canada talks a good game of ‘Fortress North America,’ but doesn’t follow through.” Goncalves added that it really would not even matter who the next US president is. “No Republican, no Democrat is going back to free trade!” he said. Mark Millet, CEO of Steel Dynamics, ruled out a trilateral agree- ment as of now. “It looks like the US will make a deal with Mexico,” he said during an on-stage discussion. USMCA Roundtable While most speakers at the GSDF referred to the USMCA in passing, the special USMCA trade roundtable held a detailed discussion on the USMCA; the panelists included Philip Bell, the President/CEO, Steel Manufacturers’ Association; Catherine Cobden, Pres- ident/CEO, Canadian Steel Produc- ers’ Association; David Zabludowsky, Deputy Director, IQOM Strategic Advisors; and Alan Price, Partner, Wiley law firm. John Lichtenstein, managing partner at World Steel Dynamics, moderated the discussion. Catherine Cobden, the President/ CEO of the Canadian Steel Producers’ Association, defended Canada’s steel industry and said that her country took the steel trade enforcement “very seri- ously”. She highlighted the numer- ous steps taken by Canada to stop steel dumping, arguing that the mea- sures aligned very much with the US position, reflected in the antidumping and countervailing duty actions taken against 31 countries. Canada has also implemented a series of tariff rate quotas (TRQs) which allow import of pre-determined volumes at lower duties. Cobden added that the US Section 232 tariffs “don’t work perfectly for every region”. David Zabludowsky, deputy director of IQOM Strategic Advisors, one of the panelists, said that Mexi- co’s priority has been to get the pact renewed; if the pact is not renewed, there would be a cost to pay. “Invest- ments would be delayed until there is clarity on the rules of the road.” For Mexico, the top concern was the Section 232 tariffs, he emphasized. “There should be ample chance for some changes,” he said. The GSDF was held before the July 1 review and the US refusal to renew the pact; preliminary US-Mex- ico talks were reportedly more pro- ductive around steel, aluminum and autos. The US held only informal dis- cussions with Canada, according to Alan Price, partner at Wiley law firm. Philip Bell, the President/CEO of the Steel Manufacturers’ Associa- tion, explained the reasons for retain- ing Section 232 tariffs. “I think there are several good reasons that we are keeping the 232 tar- iffs in place and that we are seeking sig- nificant changes to the USMCA.” He said that when look- ing at the region, the United States “is responsible for 85% of the Gross Domes- tic Product [GDP] generated within the USMCA region.” He observed: “So it shouldn’t come as any surprise if President Trump might be sitting in the oval office going, ‘Okay, we’re responsible for 85% of the GDP, then why on earth, are we having such high trade imbalances with Canada and Mexico?’” Bell went on to say: “He (Trump) can also be saying, ‘Well, if we’re responsible for 85% of the GDP in the region, why isn’t there more Amer- ican steel required in the domestic content requirements for automo- tive and other manufactured goods?’ He’s probably also thinking if we’re responsible for 85% of the GDP in this trading bloc, why aren’t there more American steelmaking jobs and American manufacturing jobs. So, if you’re President Trump, that is a very legitimate reason for keeping the 232 tariffs in place.” Bell added that Section 232 tar- iffs allow the United States to negoti- ate from a position of strength. “This administration firmly believes that the ability to sell your steel in the United States is not a right. It’s a privilege, and it’s time for our trading partners to understand and appreciate that privilege, and to take their trading relationship with the United States more seriously.” He contended that both Canada and Mexico “need to get tougher, and … align their trade policies with trade policies that work like the 232 tariffs and the 301 tariffs.” In an AJOT-interview, Bell said that the US steel industry wants a USMCA that “works for all three countries”. “That is why the US administration has imposed Section 232 tariffs which can be changed after the US gets changes and the trade imbalance is resolved. The US wants to see more US steel sent to the export markets and get a fair share in terms of domestic content,” he said. The US wants the agreement partners to adopt regulations that align with 232 and 301 tariffs and modify rules of origin to benefit US steel. The major concern of the US is (EVENT – continued from page 6) Philip Bell, the President/CEO of the Steel Manufacturers’ Association (EVENT – continued on page 23)
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