JULY 2026 American Journal of Transportation American Journal of Transportation 3 The review continues: USMCA faces uncertain future By Pete Goldin, AJOT The United States–Mexico– Canada Agreement (USMCA) required the USMCA Free Trade Commission to conduct a joint review of the agree- ment on July 1, 2026. The out- come of the meeting is that the US did not agree to renew the USMCA in its current form. The US Trade Representa- tive (USTR) reports that the US will continue to engage with Mexico and Canada to address the USMCA’s short- comings, as well as US trade deficits with these countries. This includes a third round of bilateral negotiations between US and Mexico on July 20. The US decision trig- gered a cycle of annual joint reviews over the next 10 years, while the original 16-year USMCA plan keeps the treaty fully operational until July 1, 2036. However, any of the three countries can still withdraw from the agreement if they provide six-month’s notice. Victory Or Setback? “July 1 did not settle USMCA’s future. It opened the next phase of the review,” explains Blake Harden, Man- aging Director, Washing- ton Council, Ernst & Young (EY). “The agreement did not expire, nor was it renewed for another 16 years. It remains in force through 2036, meaning there is no immediate disrup- tion to North American trade.” Harden continues, “This is neither a clear victory nor a setback. Rather, it signals that the parties are taking addi- tional time to work through complex issues. The United States and Mexico have begun formal review discus- sions, while the United States and Canada continue to engage more informally. That continued engagement is a constructive sign, although a trilateral outcome will ulti- mately be needed to achieve many of the administration’s broader objectives.” Harden adds, “For busi- nesses, the key issue moving forward is the uncertainty surrounding the future rules governing preferential treat- ment, investment decisions, and market access as negoti- ations continue.” William Alan Reinsch, Senior Adviser and Econom- ics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) says that USMCA uncertainty could be intentional because it is expected to drive compa- nies to invest in the US rather than Canada or Mexico, but he believes the more likely outcome is most companies putting plans on hold. “If companies don’t know what tariffs or other regulatory requirements, they will face in six months or a year, they will usually wait until they have greater confidence about the future,” says Reinsch. “Even companies already located in the United States that have substantial exports to Mexico or Canada will hold off on new US investment if they don’t know what their future tariff liabilities will be.” “While some custom- ers are taking a wait-and-see approach to the USMCA review, their focus is on building supply chains that can quickly adapt to chang- ing conditions and avoid Realterm recently announced the acquisition of an industrial outdoor storage (IOS) facility in Laredo, TX. (FUTURE – continued on page 4) EXPERT LOGISTICS ON DEMAND ANYWHERE. ANYTIME. ON TIME. 1000 Foust Road Brownsville, TX 78521 +1 (956) 831-4592 www.portofbrownsville.com CONTACT US USMCA TRADE 2026 USMCA TRADE 2026
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