22 American Journal of Transportation American Journal of Transportation ajot.com Transatlantic trade: ‘a pocket of stability amid global maritime chaos’? (POCKET – continued on page 23) By Stuart Todd, AJOT Earlier this summer, a media report described the ocean trade between Europe and North America as “a pocket of stability amid global maritime chaos,” the conflict in the Middle East and disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz having triggered volatility on several major trade lanes. With input from exec- utives from two leading industry players, one an ocean carrier and the other a forwarder, AJOT took a deep dive into market fun- damentals on the transat- lantic trade and the current trends, while also assessing the impact of US import tar- iffs on traffic volumes. Westbound the Traditional Headhaul Based on data from Eurostat, in 2025, the EU’s leading exports to the US were phar- maceutical and healthcare products, followed by road vehicles, general industrial machinery and equipment, electrical machinery and equip- ment, and power-generating machinery and equipment. In the opposite direction, Europe’s main imports from the US include medicinal and pharmaceutical products, petro- leum and petroleum products, power-generating machinery and equipment, natural gas, and other transport equipment. Westbound is traditionally the Transatlantic’s headhaul due to continued strength in European exports. Eastbound demand has been softer, reflect- ing weaker European import demand, currency effects, and uncertainty around trade policy. ‘Steady But Not Insulated from Global Shocks’ Compared to the “extreme volatility” seen on some other major east–west trades, the transatlantic has been relatively steady, according to Andreas Laube, Director, Trade Man- agement Atlantic/North Europe, at German container shipping line, Hapag-Lloyd. “It benefits from a diver- sified cargo mix, shorter tran- sit times and a more mature demand profile. That said, it’s not insulated from global shocks—policy changes, fuel and energy costs, and broader macro demand can still move the market quickly.” Casper Ellerbaek, EVP and Global Head of Ocean Freight DHL Global For- warding (DGF), noted that operationally, the Transat- lantic trade has become more stable, with schedule reliabil- ity returning to respectable levels following the winter disruptions while the relative absence of severe congestion at North American ports has also supported performance. “However, the market is not uniformly-balanced. Europe-to-North America capacity has tightened con- siderably, and DHL’s short- term outlook anticipates that this tightness will continue through the coming months. By contrast, the eastbound direction remains consider- ably looser, and capacity con- tinues to exceed demand. “Peak-season surcharges have also recently been extended to the transatlantic westbound trade. While it would be fair to describe the Transatlantic trade as a pocket of relative operational stabil- ity, it is not insulated from the wider volatility affecting ocean freight markets.” Traffic Trends Looking at some of the Port of Antwerp-Bruges EUROPE TRADE EUROPE TRADE 2026 2026 New EU customs rules for low-value imports reshaping traffic flows At the start of last month, the European Union (EU) suspended its de minimis rule, which applied to parcels worth less than €150 (approx- imately $175) and replaced it with a flat-rate tax of €3 per item from non-EU countries. When the US removed its de minimis exemption for goods under $800 in August 2025, it led to an immediate and significant decline in cross-bor- der e-commerce traffic. Shift Toward Higher-Value Cargo Six weeks on from the EU customs changes – intro- duced to close loopholes that allowed unsafe and non-com- pliant goods to enter the bloc too easily – feedback from industry sources points to a very similar impact. In its latest logistics and services update, Maersk noted that “low-value air cargo imports into Europe have fallen by almost 33% year on year (YoY), reinforcing a broader shift away from e-commerce-driven volumes and toward higher-value cargo segments.” E-commerce traffic han- dled at Liège Airport, in Belgium, Europe’s biggest air hub for this category air cargo, also showed a sharp decrease in July. The airport authority said the new EU customs regula- tions had “profoundly altered the structure of imports.” E-commerce parcels han- dled at the airport fell by 24% in July compared with the same month last year, and by 41% compared with June 2026. At the same time, parcels valued at over €150 euros have, according to a customs source, seen a 10% increase, reflecting a shift towards higher-value shipments and a rapid adaptation by logistics operators. Despite the downturn e-commerce air cargo over- all, Liege Airport said it was “maintaining a solid growth trajectory thanks to the diver- sification of its traditional freight operations.” Pharmaceuticals, data center equipment and flowers seg- ments had actively under- pinned the month’s logistics activity, it added. The airport’s total cargo tonnage rose by 4% in July 2026 YoY, despite a 4% decrease in aircraft movements, illustrat- ing an increased optimization of capacity. Carriers Withdrawing Freighters In its latest Asia Pacific Freight Report, Taiwan-based global forwarding and logis- tics group Dimerco noted that EU’s removal of its de mini- mis exemption on July 1 has pulled European airfreight capacity down sharply as car- riers withdraw freighters, rates have dropped with demand and the traditional summer low was expected to hold the pattern through August. Load factors on Asia-US lanes have reached approxi- mately 90% with AI and semi- conductor shipments replacing e-commerce as the primary capacity driver. “What we’re seeing is a market split in two. AI (RULES – continued on page 31)
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