AUGUST 2026 EUROPE TRADE 23 global transPORT solutions HAMBURG YOUR PORT latest data on the Transatlantic trade, Europe’s biggest port, Rotterdam, showed a 9.2% increase in container- ized exports to the US in the first half of 2026. However, Rico Luman, Senior Sector Economist, at Dutch bank ING, specializing in transport, logistics and the automotive industry, played down the apparent solid growth performance. “This is probably the result of a restructuring in sailing schedules. 2026 was the first full H1 of the Gemini alli- ance of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd and may have resulted in more calls in Rot- terdam. Europe’s second largest port Antwerp-Bruges, in Belgium, which has the most intensive trade links with the US reported a 16.5% decline in full containers to the US.” The Port Authority confirmed the figure which it said, “clearly shows the impact of US import tariffs.” Luman added: “The bottom line is EU trade flows to the US contracted in H1 2026.” ‘Rates Have Recovered and Moved Higher’ Turning to rates on the Transat- lantic have been relatively stable com- pared with those on Asia-Europe and Transpacific lanes, Hapag-Lloyd’s Laube observed. “Rates have recovered and moved higher due to capacity reductions and improved vessel utilization, espe- cially on the westbound leg, but there has been no significant rate explosion. Current market dynamics point more toward controlled strengthening than a true peak-season-driven surge.” DGF’s Ellerbaek concurred. “Transatlantic rates have not expe- rienced the same dramatic increases seen on the Asia-Europe and Trans- pacific trades. However, it would no longer be accurate to characterize rates across the whole Transatlantic market as simply stable. “On the westbound trade, tighten- ing space and carrier capacity manage- ment have placed rates under upward pressure. As already alluded to, car- riers recently expanded peak season surcharges to Europe-to-North Amer- ica, reflecting the reduced availability of space and the risk of cargo being rolled. The eastbound market remains softer because capacity continues to exceed demand. Overall, the increase remains less pronounced than on the main Asia export trades, but the west- bound market has clearly tightened.” Front-Loading and SC adjustments As for US import tariffs, Laube recognized that they had negatively impacted sentiment and growth pros- pects but had not fundamentally dis- rupted the Transatlantic trade. “The main effect, beside increased uncertainty, has been some cargo front-loading and supply-chain adjust- ments, while overall volumes and market fundamentals have remained relatively resilient.” DGF’s Ellerbaek said there had been clear evidence that US tariff uncertainty had encouraged earlier inventory decisions generally and led importers to accelerate shipments into North America. “But this was primarily related to Transpacific cargo moving through US West Coast ports. Based on available data, we cannot substantiate.” signif- icant front-loading specifically from Europe. Any such effect appears more limited than on Asia-to-US trades.” EU Auto Exports To US One of the key exports from Europe on the Transatlantic trade are finished vehicles. 2025 was a year which saw significant front-loading activity, especially in the first quarter, ahead of US import tariffs and also towards the end of the year for EV sales, before Inflation Reduction Act IRA subsidies were removed. “The import tariffs on EU vehicles into the US were particularly hard on brands such as Porsche which doesn’t produce vehicles locally, in contrast to the likes of BMW and Mercedes who do,” said Luman. Q1 data from Eurostat showed YoY declines in EU automobile exports to the US of 11.9% in volume and 28.3% in value. Figures are not yet available for H1. Asked whether this could be partly explained by front-loading, Luman replied: “That has definitely been a factor in Q1, but it also reflects a more structural impact with trade barriers now being higher. European auto- makers have looked into work around options to raise production in the US without immediate bold investments in new plants, but that’s not possible across the board for all models. “EU-US auto exports to the Q2 will probably be in line with Q1, though probably slightly better as US new car sales have been less negative YoY.” Near-Term Outlook As to how the Transatlantic trade is likely to play out over the coming months, Laube anticipates a season- ally-driven market with ‘pockets of tightening’ around peak weeks, but without the kind of extreme swings seen on some other trades – unless there is a new external shock. “The key variables to watch are US and EU demand, inventory behav- ior, and trade policy developments. Customers are prioritizing predict- ability, so service reliability and end- to-end planning will remain central.” The near-term outlook was “stable to slightly positive” supply and demand being currently better aligned than in previous periods, sup- porting utilization and rates. “While trade policy and macro- economic risks persist, the Transat- lantic market is expected to remain one of the more balanced and opera- tionally stable East-West trades in the months ahead.” For Ellerbaek, the outlook is “con- structive operationally but increas- ingly uneven commercially.” Schedule reliability should remain comparatively respectable, particularly while North American ports avoid the severe congestion currently affecting parts of Europe and Asia, he observed. However, Europe-to-North Amer- ica capacity is expected to remain tight in the coming months, support- ing firm rates and peak season sur- charges. The eastbound trade should remain softer, with available capacity exceeding demand. “The principal risks are continued European port and inland congestion, further carrier capacity redeployment, bunker price volatility linked to geopo- litical developments, and changes in US tariff policy. Overall, the Transatlantic should remain more stable than many Asia export corridors, but it should no longer be described as uniformly-bal- anced,” Ellerbaek concluded. (POCKET – continued from page 22) A rundown of action at the four main spokes of the St. Louis region’s port system shows that regionalism, expansion, and investment are critical priorities. St. Louis Port Authority The Port Authority of the City of St. Louis supports economic develop- ment in the City’s 10,000-acre Port District, which lies along the City’s 19 miles of Mississippi River front- age. In addition to managing leases for city-owned property in this area, the Authority works with shipping stakeholders across the Bi-State area. A priority for the St. Louis Port Authority is redeveloping the former South Refuse site located at 4230 South First St. adjacent to the Mississippi River and I-55. This 11.6-acre city-owned site will be repurposed for port operations. The site has direct barge, rail, and truck accessibility. The upstream end will have 2400 feet of mooring. Union Pacific Railroad is the rail industrial lead. Union Pacific has a rail spur into the Kinder Morgan tank farm to the north and a spur into the Watco warehouse immedi- ately to the south. The project encompasses con- struction of a new $13 million South Refuse complex to the west and $3 million for riverfront site develop- ment. Contingent on funding, a rail spur that accommodates nine cars, a 400-foot sheet-metal dock, and a warehouse up to 90,000 sq. ft. could be part of the project scope. The Port Authority also recently authorized a 25-year sublease with updated rate and tonnage royalties to SCF Lewis & Clark Terminals for its Municipal River Terminal (MRT), the Clinton St. warehouse, the Tyler Street grain facility, and two vacant parcels. The Port Authority worked with Dan Lester of Ingram Marine Group – of which SCF Lewis & Clark Terminals is a subsidiary - on the new lease. Taylor said the move is designed to revise the MRT’s footprint. The revi- sion and new lease terms would facil- itate upgrades to 11,000 feet of track, the reinstatement of an access point at the floodgate, new employment opportunities, and the MRT’s ability to accommodate unit trains. “I think it’s important for people to realize that we are by far the busi- est inland port. We have approximately 130 facilities in our harbor on both sides of the river. We just have so many different options,” said Susan Taylor, the Port Authority’s director. Kaskaskia Regional Port District The KRPD is an Illinois govern- ment unit focused on economic devel- opment in Monroe, Randolph, and parts of St. Clair County. It has five terminals across the district, each with a unique combination of infrastructure assets and transportation linkages. Brent Donovan, KRPD’s General Manager, said there is a tremendous amount of investment taking place across the district contributing to its con- tinued growth as part of the St. Louis regional freight network. “At KRPD #1 in New Athens, we recently broke ground on a $10 (DRIVE – continued on page 24) (DRIVE – continued from page 20)
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