34 American Journal of Transportation American Journal of Transportation ajot.com LEGACY SERVICE EXPANSION 850.767.3220 PORTPCFL.COM POWERING TRADE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLORIDA Foreign Trade Zone No. 65 Contact As a growing regional Port, Port Panama City handles a diverse mix of containerized, breakbulk, and bulk cargoes. Continued investments in modern port infrastructure have allowed Port Panama City to handle growing cargo volumes, while also promoting global trade and supporting industrial development at the local, state, and regional levels. END-TO-END FOREST PRODUCT LOGISTIC SOLUTIONS NORFOLK • CHARLESTON • SEATTLE MONTREAL • VANCOUVER • PRINCE RUPERT WHY CHOOSE RAY-MONT? 01 Damage-Free Transloading Precision handling for pulp & paper - cargo stays protected. 02 Maximized Container Loads Optimized payloads to reduce costs and boost efficiency. 03 Fast Transfers Speedy loading to meet dynamic demand. 04 Cost Savings Cut transit time and streamline operations. 05 Smart Storage Solutions Flexible inventory management tailored to your needs. 06 Complete Logistics Chain Storage, transloading and ocean freight - seamless integration. 1-888-933-4449 www.ray-mont.com [email protected] SCAN TO VISIT question facing the Federal Reserve Bank’s FOMC at the next meet- ing (Sept. 15-16) is whether to raise interest rates. President Trump has demanded rate cuts as lower rates reduce the cost of borrowing — a major factor in housing and property purchases. Should the FOMC recom- mend an interest rate hike, it is likely that mortgage rates will rise and fur- ther dampen both the construction sector and home buyers. And while it will slow inflation, it is also likely to slow economic growth. And in the economic background, there is the unsettling rise of US con- sumer debt. US consumer debt in the first half of 2026 was $18.8 tril- lion according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, with mortgages by far the largest factor, accounting for $13.1 trillion of the total. Despite all the headwinds of 2026, analysts are expecting an upswing in 2027 and beyond, as housing indus- try fundamentals favor growth. As pointed out in a Farm Credit East post by Paul Jannke, of Forest Economic Advisors, “However, long term fun- damentals remain strong. The US is entering a period where large popula- tion cohorts in their early 30s, prime homebuying years, are driving pow- erful demographic demand. This fol- lows 15 years of underbuilding, which has created an estimated five-million- unit housing deficit.” Realignment in the Lumber Trade As stated above, the US annually produces around 35 million board feet and consumes between 50 mil- lion-to-60 million bft of lumber. With much of the 15 million bft-to-25 mil- lion bft gap between US production and consumption being filled with imports from Canada and some Euro- pean sources. The Canada-US imbroglio (see Julie Gedeon, North American for- estry divided on page 28 for an in-depth analysis of the US-Can- ada lumber dispute) which ignited a firestorm of tariffs and a rippling of other political and economic reper- cussions, has roots in the decades old dispute between Canada and the US over the lumber trade. While there is a likelihood of a compromise in the near future, it is just as likely the rift of the US-Canada tariff war will have long-term economic impacts — espe- cially on the lumber business. But the Canada-US lumber dis- pute isn’t the only influence reshaping the global trade in lumber and other forest products. Forest product analysts Håkan Ekström and Glen O’Kelly, in a recent report discussing the market for global softwoods introduced their overview by stating, “Global soft- wood markets are entering a period of tighter supply. Softwood roundwood supply has remained essentially flat since 2000 despite continued growth in overall roundwood production and is forecast to increase by only about 0.5% annually through 2035.” This shortage has been exacer- bated by events such as the sanctions on Russia, tariff battles with Canada and the European Union, along with a host of other destabilizing geo-po- litical events. And as the analysts comment added, “At the same time, demand for construction timber, pack- one of their impressively modern and efficient mills in Louisiana,” he says. A much greater use of forested biomass as a renewable energy source is viewed on both sides of the border as a viable alternative use for low-value timber and wood chips. “The develop- ment of biofuel, biochar and other for- est-based biomass-developed products would go a long way in filling the loss of pulpwood markets,” Dane notes. The council has made it a top legislative agenda to have market development support include forested biomass feedstocks in US renewable fuel standards. In Canada, provincial/ territorial forestry organizations are similarly prioritizing biomass energy in their pivoting strategies. aging and biomass is expected to con- tinue growing faster than supply. The result is a progressively tighter sup- ply-demand balance, with increasing pressure on the availability and real prices of softwood logs.” All this adds to the immediate pricing and demand confusion of what will go up and what will go down, surrounding lumber and the general forest product industry, which is the hammer and which is the nail? (MARKET – continued from page 32) (DIVIDED – continued from page 30)
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