After a nearly two-year cycle of surging freight volumes, two key drivers of growth for the freight cycle--goods consumption and inventory restocking--are faltering.

Combined with a major improvement in driver availability (27,300 new jobs added in the past two months), all signs continue to point to a change in the trajectory of rates in the coming months.

Not a Straightforward Descent

  May 2022 Year-over-year change 2-year stacked change Month-to-month change Month-to-month change (SA)
Cass Freight Index - Shipments 1.235 -2.7% 31.7% 5.4% 4.0%
Cass Freight Index - Expenditures 4.287 27.5% 91.1% -4.9% -5.9%
Cass Inferred Freight Rates 3.471 31.0% NA -9.8% -9.5%
Truckload Linehaul Index 168.6 13.2% 29.1% 0.9% --

The Cass Transportation Indexes accurately measure changes in North American freight activity and costs based on $37 billion in paid freight expenses for the Cass customer base of hundreds of large shippers.