A recent gathering of world leaders and military officials in southern Germany exposed the growing divisions between the European Union and China over the bloc’s biggest security concern — the war in Ukraine.
As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi led a delegation to the Munich Security Conference and gave a 30-minute speech on Saturday during the three-day event, Beijing offered little of substance on how to end the war in Ukraine. Wang said conditions were not ripe for peace talks between Ukraine and Russia — just as Europe is urgently seeking additional support for Kyiv.
Wang met with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba, who briefed him on Ukraine’s plans for a high-level meeting to discuss ways to end the war. A readout of the meeting from Beijing didn’t reference the summit.
Beijing’s support for Russia has been a sticking point in relations with Europe. Tensions have been rising as the bloc made clear it won’t separate trade from security issues, with Brussels opening a probe into Chinese electric-vehicle manufacturers and Beijing launching an anti-dumping investigation into EU liquor products. Brussels is considering new restrictions on three Chinese firms that it believes are supporting Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine.
“China has lost credibility in Europe on the Ukraine issue because of the way it handled the situation,” said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis SA, and a senior fellow at Brussels-based think tank Bruegel. “That was a wakeup call for Europe.”
China’s overcapacity in EVs is also a big political risk for Europe, which is increasingly anxious about the competitiveness of its domestic automotive industries. In a sign of tensions escalating over trade, the EU opened its first full-blown investigation into a Chinese state-owned train manufacturer under new rules against foreign subsidies just as the conference was underway.
EU competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager said the train probe shouldn’t come as a surprise. “We’re not stepping up against China,” she said on Saturday in Munich. “We are stepping up against what we see as unfair.”
Attention Wanes
With ties under strain and chances of progress on trade and geopolitical issues remaining low, European leaders are looking beyond China. The EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said Friday that “suddenly” Beijing is not a top priority, according to an SCMP report. “It is clear that China, the big elephant in the room, is not at the epicenter of our concerns,” he said.
That hasn’t gone unnoticed by the Chinese.
Former Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying said at an event at the Hertie School in Berlin on Monday that attention to China at the Munich conference has waned.
“I remember once there were so many meetings with China in the title and we didn’t have enough time or enough people to go to every one of them,” she said, according to a recording obtained by Bloomberg and confirmed by her office. “But this year, China seems to be a bit out of the limelight.”
In Brussels, there’s less talk about partnership and more about rivalry, according to a European official who asked not to be identified discussing politically sensitive issues. Even areas once thought to offer scope for collaboration such as green energy now face closer scrutiny, the person said.
Beijing has sought to resist Russia’s efforts to pull it further along into supporting the war, according to a Chinese official, who asked not to be identified discussing a sensitive matter. While ties between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are extremely close, the rest of the Chinese bureaucracy is more skeptical of Moscow, the person said.
China perceives the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a case of two brothers fighting each other, said another Chinese official familiar with Beijing’s thinking, who asked not to be identified discussing a sensitive topic. That means it’s best for the outside world to just let them get on with it, the official said.
Another issue that divides Beijing and Brussels is their views on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO. Many in Europe see the military alliance playing a critical role in deterring Russia and supporting Ukraine.
China opposes any attempt by NATO to expand its footprint into the Asia-Pacific region. Zhou Bo, a retired senior colonel in the People’s Liberation Army, said in an interview that NATO is like a “zombie” organization trying to stay relevant by elbowing into the Indo-Pacific region.
Still there’s mounting disquiet in NATO about Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House and the likelihood that he would scale back commitments to some members and push Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war with Russia.
A potential Trump victory might alter Europe’s perception of China, according to Cui Hongjian, a professor at Beijing Foreign Studies University and a former diplomat, who attended the Munich conference.
“Perhaps at that time, European countries will think that China is still a more reliable partner,” he said.
