Natural gas prices in Europe increased as flows into the region remained crimped and cooler weather was forecast for the next couple of weeks.

Benchmark futures rose as much as 5.7% on Monday, before paring some of the gains. Supplies from Norway are set to increase, according to nominations from operator Gassco AS, but remain about 10% below the average of last month because of maintenance work. Orders for Russian gas transiting Ukraine are above Sunday’s levels, but still far below those seen earlier in April. 

Traders are also keeping a close watch on whether a resolution can be found on the Kremlin’s demand to be paid in rubles for its gas. European Union lawyers have said the new mechanism violates existing sanctions, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that flows could be cut if the terms aren’t met. However, disruptions aren’t seen as imminent with most bills due only later next month.  

Prices gains are being limited by indications that any additional sanctions against Russia for its war on Ukraine wouldn’t yet include gas. European Union member states still don’t all agree on the need for a full embargo on Russian oil and gas, the bloc’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told German newspaper Die Welt. 

Front-month gas futures in Europe were 2.7% higher at 97.44 euros a megawatt-hour as of 10:46 a.m. in Amsterdam. They fell for a third straight week on Friday. The equivalent contract in the U.K. declined 2.5%.

Infrastructure

The war, however, has raised concerns over damage to infrastructure since it started two months ago. The latest warning came from Ukraine’s head of state-owned Naftogaz Ukrainy. One-third of gas volumes shipped via Ukraine to Europe could be lost due to Russian forces in recently occupied territories, and Moscow’s troops are disrupting operation of pumping stations, Yuriy Vitrenko, CEO of the energy company, said on Twitter over the weekend.

“Russia’s war in Ukraine has certainly brought geopolitics to the forefront of natural gas in an acute way, particularly given the ongoing risk of a complete shut-in,” RBC Capital Markets strategists led by Christopher Louney said in a report.

Still, more liquefied natural gas imports into the continent have helped counter any risk of shortages. Imports in April are already 30% higher than a year earlier. Europe is looking to wean itself off Russian energy, with Italy this month signing agreements to buy more gas from Africa.

A bout of cooler weather is also likely to boost demand, following a period of relatively warmer weather in recent weeks. Maxar forecast below-average temperatures across most of Europe during the next two weeks.