The Freightos Baltic Index’s global container pricing and additional data across 12 shipping routes.

Highlights
• The 90-day truce on the latest China trade tariff increase caused transpacific pricing to fall through December. A new year, and new price increases – a combination of fuel-related surcharge increases and GRIs. Carriers are seeking to cash in on an uptick in demand caused by post-Christmas replenishment and the looming Chinese New Year shutdown. As a consequence, this week China-West Coast prices jumped 16% (from $1,722 to $2,003) and China-East Coast prices jumped 13% (from $2,779 to $3,137).
• China-North Europe prices also jumped 13%, with more to come as other carriers have announced FAK increases for later in the month. Coming into contract renegotiation time at this time, carriers will be hoping that spot prices stay high.
“Here’s the playbook. Transpacific ocean prices drop just before Christmas, and then pick up again early January as logistics managers start replenishing stock. Chinese New Year shutdown causes prices to spike again, but after that, they fall away until next peak season.
Well, President Trump tore up the playbook. Importers, fearing trade tariff increases, imported early, pushing prices up from early summer. They were already over-stocked before the latest trade tariff got a 90-day reprieve. If the tariffs go back on, prices will go up again.
So what’s the state of play? Goldman Sachs economists recently predicted a deal unlikely. Then, after Apple shares took a dive last week, other economists predicted a deal likely. Then the share market rallied. So what’s the state of play?”
Ocean Freight Rates
• The 90-day truce on the latest China trade tariff increase had caused transpacific pricing to fall through December.
• That changed this week when a combination of GRI and fuel-related surcharge increases saw China-West Coast prices increase 16% (from $1,722 to $2,003). Similarly China-East Coast prices jumped 13% (from $2,779 to $3,137).
• China-North Europe prices also jumped 13% and more carriers will increase their FAK rates during the month. Coming into contract renegotiation time at this time, carriers will be hoping that spot prices stay high.
• With these three indexes all up, the global index also jumped this week, by 10% to $1,552.

Air Freight Rates
• For flights out of China, the Christmas peak season is over. Currently, China-US prices are 65% of their peak ($4.82 on November 26) and China-Europe prices are 74% of their peak ($3.65 on December 10).
• There was no peak pricing on the Europe-US lane. The current price is just 1% off peak ($1.55 on December 17), although prices had dipped further last week. Some carriers even continued offering promotions on some lanes right through December.
• This time last year, after two months of excess demand, European flights were finally catching up with a massive backlog of shipments. This wasn’t a massive backlog this year, in part because carriers increased capacity through 2018 and in part because of a lower than expected demand (some of this being shippers who, having been burned by soaring air freight prices last year, have switched to LCL).