FTR reports January 2026 North American (N.A.) Class 8 truck/tractor preliminary net orders decreased 24% m/m to 32,500 units but were up a solid 27% y/y. January marked the second straight month of y/y order growth – the first time that has happened since April and May of 2024 – and orders were well above the 10-year January average of 26,300 units. While the on-highway market made up the bulk of the m/m decline, both on-highway and vocational markets contributed significantly to the y/y increase in orders.

January N.A. Class 8 net orders extended December’s 20%+ y/y increase, but the improvement likely remains driven by timing rather than being cyclical. Even with January’s gain, cumulative orders for the 2026 order season from September through January are down 13% y/y, underscoring the notion that recent strength reflects the execution of deferred replacement demand rather than a true demand inflection. Clearer tariff-adjusted pricing and improved regulatory visibility (Classes 3-8 tariffs and EPA 2027 NOx) likely encouraged fleets to move forward with purchases that had been delayed through much of the fall, shifting order activity into late 2025 and early 2026 rather than creating incremental demand.

Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, commented, “Some stabilization and improvement in the freight market since late 2025 also may have provided modest support at the margin, but fleet profitability and capital discipline remain binding constraints. Purchasing behavior continues to be replacement-driven with only modest early EPA 2027 influence. Lingering downside risks include fragile freight fundamentals, elevated cost pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, and broader macroeconomic risk. These risks temper at least some of the enthusiasm around the recent improvement in orders. A durable recovery would require notable and sustained y/y order growth as 2026 progresses and meaningful improvement in freight demand, freight pricing, and overall economic conditions.”

Preliminary orders may be estimated and are subject to revision when FTR releases final data mid-month as part of its North American Commercial Truck & Trailer Outlook service.