FTR’s Trucking Conditions Index reading for March, at -8.69, is just the start of negative readings that almost certainly will lead to the worst quarter (Q2 2020) for the segment on record. FTR expects by far the worst monthly reading in April due to lockdowns related to the COVID-19 pandemic before readings recover to still-negative conditions. We do not anticipate any positive TCI readings until around the middle of 2021, although the pace of economic recovery remains uncertain.
Details of the March TCI are found in the May issue of FTR’s Trucking Update, published April 30. Additional commentary updates the COVID-19 discussion including their view on what a restart to the economy might look like. Along with the TCI and COVID-19 analysis, the Trucking Update includes data and analysis on load volumes, the capacity environment, rates, costs, and the truck driver situation.
Avery Vise, vice president of trucking, commented, “Despite a brief grocery restocking surge, overall trucking market conditions in March were the worst since the Great Recession. However, once we have all the data for April, March will seem like the good ol’ days by comparison. Trucking conditions certainly will improve beyond April, but the outlook remains uncertain both in demand and capacity as consumers, businesses, and trucking companies navigate an unprecedented contraction-and-restart dynamic that is further complicated by an ongoing health crisis and enormous financial support from Washington.”
The TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions are: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel price, and financing. The individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. Conversely, a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings (up or down) suggest significant operating changes are likely.
