Oklahoma City, OK; Hartford, CT; and Cleveland, OH, are among the top-performing big-box markets, according to an updated ranking from CoStar, the leading global provider of online real estate marketplaces, information, and analytics in the property markets.

Based on a Z-score analysis of the largest 54 markets in the U.S., Oklahoma City remained in the top spot, while Hartford moved up to second place, followed by Cleveland.

“Oklahoma City’s continued first-place ranking was driven by a combination of strong large-box leasing demand, tightening availability, and limited future supply among major U.S. logistics markets,” said Juan Arias, national director of industrial analytics at CoStar Group. “Sparse new construction and continued absorption within logistics hubs have helped the market outperform its peers on the scoring metrics, particularly vacancy expansion and availability within new logistics product.”

“Hartford's move to second place for the big-box sector was due to tight conditions in its industrial property sector rather than exceptionally high transaction volume,” said Arias. “The industrial market is outperforming the total U.S., with a logistics vacancy rate of 5.6% and availability of 6.8%. The number of leases signed for spaces of at least 50,000 square feet increased about 29% from the pre-pandemic average, from 6.2 transactions annually to an average of 8 during the past two years.”

Cleveland’s shift to third place was supported by the second-lowest availability rate for logistics buildings completed since 2020 and the seventh-best vacancy performance.

“Cleveland's strong performance is largely due to its structural scarcity,” said Arias. “The size of the overall industrial market expanded only 1.5% during the past five years, compared with the national average of 10.8%, and only about 421,500 square feet is currently under construction. Availability within logistics facilities larger than 100,000 square feet stands near 6.7%, well below the national benchmark.”

Big-box analysis

The three variables analyzed were: leasing activity for logistics spaces of 50,000 square feet or more in the last two years versus the pre-pandemic average since 2015, to assess tenant demand performance; vacancy rate expansion for logistics properties of over 100,000 square feet, to quantify how tight the big box market has remained over the last few years; and the availability rate of newer properties built since 2021, to assess the amount of space available in newer competitive properties.