•    China-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Daily) down by 2% since last week to $1636/FEU. Rates are 32% higher than rates in 2019 at this time.

•    China-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Daily) are just 1% lower than last week, reaching $2578/FEU, and are even with rates for this week last year.
Key insights below:

1    Though ocean rates stayed stable this week, there are initial signs of recovery as some carriers reinstated cancelled Asia-US sailings, and others announced rate increases for Asia-Europe.
2    Air rates remain high, though Freightos.com data show ex-China prices seem to be stabilizing on added capacity and the easing of PPE-driven bottlenecks.
3    Amid speculation of COVID-19’s impact on diversifying and onshoring, Freightos.com marketplace data on searches for freight out of South East Asia show that while China regained its pre-COVID share of interest, it  has lost 5% of import search volume year over year.
Analysis
Ocean rates were stable this week, still kept up by tightened capacity to meet the shutdown-driven low demand.
But there were some first signs that we’ve reached the nadir of the slowdown.
Though not enough of a trend to move the index yet, some carriers announced they were reinstating a small number of sailings from Asia to the US in June, while others announced increased rates to Europe from Asia.
These steps may be partly due to carriers overestimating how low demand would fall, but there are also signs of increases in bookings: some forwarders report a muted seasonal-driven uptick in US orders, while some indicators suggest supply chain activity is picking up in Europe as many countries ease restrictions.
Air rates likewise remain high, though Freightos.com marketplace data show prices out of China seem to be normalizing. Rates were 250% higher than at the beginning of the year, down from a peak of more than 400%, suggesting that improved capacity and steps to resolve bottlenecks are resulting in eased prices. WebCargo data for rates out of Europe were level for the week.
Amazon continued to respond to the shutdown-induced eCommerce spike by delaying Prime Day until September. The delay is in hopes that the economy and spending will begin its recovery by then and also gives Amazon time to be ready and handle the hoped-for Prime Day surge in orders.
And COVID-19’s impact on how and where all those items will be sourced is also top of mind.
Buzz about the need to diversify sourcing has been intensified by the pandemic.

Freightos.com marketplace data on SMB searches for shipments out of South East Asia indicate that while China has regained its pre-COVID-19 level of interest, it is no longer as dominant as it was last year, with its share dropping 5 percentage points to 90%.
China has ceded some of that focus to other countries in the region like Vietnam. Stay tuned to see if the pandemic will accelerate this shift.