Xeneta analyst insight – carriers seize opportunity as freight rates head towards record levels from Far East to US

Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst:

“Spot rates from Far East to US West Coast and US East Coast are up 324% and 325% respectively since pre-Hormuz crisis at the end of February. That leaves freight rates on these critical trades just 18% and 11% short of the all-time high set during the COVID-19 disruption. With bunker prices pushing fuel surcharges higher, surpassing the pandemic peak cannot be ruled out, which would be an extraordinary market development.

“If a freight rate record is broken, it is most likely to occur on the trade into US East Coast, but even if we do not see a new all-time high, the fact we are even discussing the possibility demonstrates how sensitive critical ocean container shipping trades are to geopolitical forces and how a regional conflict in the Middle East can have major implications at a global level.

“Carriers are seizing the opportunity while the market is hot, adding capacity into US East Coast ahead of what could be a turn in the market within the next two to three weeks. Offered capacity on the Far East to US East Coast trade is 6-7% higher in September than in August.

“We should expect one more freight rate push at the start of October as shippers rush cargo out of Asia ahead of the Golden Week shutdown, before rates start to soften, or at least the pace of growth will slow.”

Data highlights

Market average spot rates – 17 September 2026:

  • Far East to US West Coast: USD 7,960 per FEU (40ft container)
  • Far East to US East Coast: USD 11,259 per FEU
  • Far East to North Europe: USD 4,103 per FEU
  • Far East to Mediterranean: USD 4,434 per FEU
  • North Europe to US East Coast: USD 2,956 per FEU


Change since 28 February 2026 (pre-Hormuz crisis):

  • Far East to US West Coast: +323.6%
  • Far East to US East Coast: +324.7%
  • Far East to North Europe: +84.9%
  • Far East to Mediterranean: +33.2%
  • North Europe to US East Coast: +100.1%


COVID-19 peak comparison:

  • Far East to US West Coast: current USD 7,960 per FEU vs. all-time high USD 9,699 per FEU (set 1 February 2022) – 17.9% short of peak
  • Far East to US East Coast: current USD 11,259 per FEU vs. all-time high USD 12,683 per FEU (set 1 January 2022) – 11.2% short of peak