US trade slowed in the fourth quarter as the global economy faltered but many US importers still had good years. Will it continue? The United States’ trade for 2015 will exceed $400 billion [$407 billion through Nov. 2015] although both imports and exports slowed in the fourth quarter. The factors were myriad for the slowdown. In some sectors inventory-taking impacted imports while other sectors, especially those related to energy, felt the effects of a glut in supply dampening development and downstream projects. Still, American importers were remarkably strong in 2015, when compared to other international markets. However, as the data from 2015 would suggest, US imports are shifting as some sectors weaken while others seem to be rising. Although the confidential nature of import data reporting makes it difficult to illustrate a complete picture of what the US economy is doing, the import data can build a caricature of the economy. The largest player is Wal-Mart, which is estimated to import just over a million TEUS annually. What is less well known is the number of exports Wal-Mart posts to the retailer’s international units. These are estimated to be in the 200,000 TEU range, which would make it one of the largest exporters as well as the de facto largest importer. The largest supplier is still China but sourcing diversification has been underway for more than a decade. Business has migrated to Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines and newcomer Myanmar looking next on the developmental road. Other players like India and the other Subcontinent nations are still in the export mix while Latin America has a chance to be a much larger contributor with the implementation of TPP. As the market leader, what happens with Wal-Mart sooner or later seems to happen with the other mega-retailers like Target, Kohl’s or Costco or even overseas with the French retailer Carrefour or the UK’s Marks & Spencer. The China factor is a critical feature in US trade patterns, both on the import and export side of the equation. Through November 2015 (latest Census figures) total trade with the PRC (People’s Republic of China) was about $550 billion representing 16% of the nation’s total. Canada and Mexico are next at 15.4% and 14.2% respectively, as US trade partners. The major difference being that China’s exports to the US totaled $444 billion, dwarfing both Canadian and Mexican imports, which were around $271.6 billion apiece. Outlining an economy The US companies importing goods from abroad outline the nation’s economy as a whole (see chart page 18). Lumping the importers into sectors helps explain where consumer demand has manifested itself in the US economy. At the top of the list (understanding confidential records skewer results) is the furniture retailer Ikea, with over 200,000 TEUS. With resurgence in home starts in the US, it’s not surprising that Ikea is not alone on the importer list, as Bob’s Furniture, RTG, Raymour & Flanigan, American Furniture Warehouse and Euromarket Designs among others are showing big import numbers. Consumer driven economics in the US are also behind the import tallies of personal electronics from global manufacturing companies like Samsung (over 133,000 TEUS) and LG Electronics (around 120,000 TEUS). Another indicator is the thriving auto industry’s impact on imports. Tire companies abound on the import list. Michelin, Hankook, GITI, Falken Tire, Yokohama, Toyo, TBC, Pirelli and Cooper are among the listed. The auto sector also includes major auto suppliers like Keystone, Mobis and Prime Wheel as well as the auto manufacturers like Mercedes Benz, Nissan, Daimler, Hyundai and Toyota. The shift by foreign automakers to building vehicles in the US is clearly part of the import trend. New Business The apparel industry has been a significant contributor to US imports for several decades. Like fashion itself, it has changed frequently and as one fad leads to another, so does the swing of success. A notable apparel importer on this year’s list is Baltimore-based Under Armour. The company has an interesting success story. It was founded in 1996 by Kevin Plank, a 23-year old former fullback of the University of Maryland’s football team, in his grandmother’s basement in D.C. The company’s revenues now are in the neighborhood of $3.96 billion a year and Under Armour has become one the most recognizable brand names in sports apparel. In recent years an entire new sector of imports has been developed, solar power. The sector has been buoyed by US government programs, and companies like Tempe, Arizona based First Solar (nearly 20,000 TEUS) and Changzhou China based-Trina Solar (with nearly 19,000 TEUS) represent two of the larger importers of solar devices. Brewing Shakeout Although not a new business, but rather a new landscape emerging, is the beverage sector. In the US market both Amsterdam-based Heineken (64,860 TEUS) and rival Anheuser-Busch (47,000 TEUS) are major importers. But the beer market is going through a major shakeout. The mega-brewer Anheuser-Busch (47,000 TEUS) announced an agreement to purchase fellow mega-brewer Miller for a $106 billion. Although both brewers were originally US owned, both now are foreign owned entities. Anheuser-Bush was sold to Belgium-based beverage giant InBev in 2008, while Miller went to South African SAB in 2002. The scope of the new deal is certain to reshape the beer market on a global scale. How this will impact imports and exports is still a little murky although impacts of the deal have been announced. For $12 billion SAB Miller is selling 50% of the voting rights and 58% of the economic interests in MillerCoors (another merger) to Molson Coors, the partner in the joint venture. Molson Coors gets the global rights to the brand as well as the right to continue to sell brands it already holds in the US market. The overall impact is that both the import and export partners of a number of brands could change. Added to this is the fact that both brewers are pursuing micro brew business. In December Anheuser Busch bought Tempe-Arizona based Four Peaks Brewing to add to its growing list of brands. The mega brewer also has added Colorado Breckenridge Brewery and London Camden Town Brewery. Overall, US importers are still tracking well. Importers have benefited from a stronger dollar and a weaker demand. Conversely, US exporters have suffered from being on the opposite side of the equation. How 2016 will treat US importers will likely be determined by US consumer demand as the global economy, like water, seeks its own sustainable level.