What’s the future for ocean carrier alliances?

In 2025 Maersk and Hapag will begin their Gemini Cooperation alliance while MSC will go it alone. So with all these domino changes, what’s the future of ocean carrier alliances?

What’s the future of ocean carrier alliances? At this writing the 2M alliance consisting of the mega-carriers, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), the world’s largest containership operator and Maersk, the second largest containership operator is set to dissolve in January of 2025.

Hapag Lloyd, the 5th largest containership operator and a current member of THE Alliance, is set to leave the group in 2025 and join Maersk in the “Gemini Cooperation” alliance in February of 2025.

Considering that the three major alliances, the 2M, THE Alliance, and Ocean Alliance, include nine out of the top ten containership operators, the reshuffling of the alliances is analogous to a major remodeling of the container shipping industry itself. So, what’s next: a big change or more of the same?

The Power of the Alliances

The power of the top three containership operators’ alliances is immense.

Although government agencies around the globe forbid ocean carriers from collaborating on freight rates, cooperation with scheduling and other backroom operations is permitted. And the scheduling of vessel rotations is a powerful tool, even without the freight collaboration. It is a power that lies in numbers. According to Alphaliner, probably the most respected chronicler of containership statistics, there are some 6,880 containerships active with a capacity of 29,245,085 TEUs. The combined fleets of the existing alliances total 3,504 ships or just about 51% of the active fleet (see Alliance Charts). But the real power is the TEU capacity. The combined alliances have 23,727,046 TEUs in capacity or just over 81% of the total world fleet. This overwhelming TEU capacity translates into an unmatched ability to globally move containers and thus move goods. This is at the core of the alliance system and the containership industry.

And if things were to continue unchanged, the power would increase as the TEU capacity on order — the containership orderbook — is concentrated among the current big three alliance members. MSC, has 1.3 million TEUs worth of capacity on order while number 3 ranked CMA CGM has 1.1 million TEUs of capacity.

Of the ocean container carriers outside the big three alliances, Zim the 10th ranked carrier, has just over 144,000 TEU on order, while PIL (Pacific International Line) has just 104,000 TEUs on order and no other container ship operator has close to 100,000 TEUs on order.

Of course, with the 2M split and Hapag Lloyd’s defection from THE Alliance to joining Maersk in the Gemini Cooperation, there is a shift in alliance operations — if not power — coming soon.

Current Ocean Carrier Alliance Structure

Divergent Liner Strategies