The level of for-hire freight shipments in August measured by the Freight TSI (134.1) was 5.6% below the all-time high level of 142.0 in August 2019 (Table 2A). The August 2021 level was 7.9% above the COVID-19 low reached in April 2020. BTS historical TSI records begin in 2000.
Monthly numbers for May and June 2021 were revised down slightly.
BTS is delaying the scheduled release of the passenger and combined indexes for August. The passenger index for August is a statistical estimate of airline passenger travel and other components based on historical trends up to July 2021. The statistical estimate does not fully account for the rapidly changing impacts of the coronavirus on the historical trend. Air freight for August is also a statistical estimate. Since air freight makes up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight estimate included. The July passenger and combined indexes are available on the BTS website.
The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons.
Analysis: The Freight TSI decreased 0.4% in August from July due to seasonally-adjusted decreases in rail carloads, rail intermodal, airfreight, and water, while pipeline increased and trucking was stable. The August decrease took place against a background of growth for other indicators.
The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index grew 0.4% in August, reflecting increases of 0.2% in manufacturing and 3.3% in utilities, while mining shrank by 0.6%. Housing starts were up 3.9% Personal Income increased by 0.2%. The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was up 0.4 points to 59.9, indicating accelerating growth in manufacturing.
Although the August Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the July index is now being released. The index increased 7.4% from June to July following an increase of 8.2% in June. Air passenger, rail passenger and transit all grew. The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level of March 2020, the last month before the full impact of the pandemic, for two months in a row, though it has not returned to its level in February 2020. It remained below any level the Passenger TSI had been before the pandemic for the 17th consecutive month.
Trend: The August freight index decrease was the fourth consecutive decrease for a decrease of 2.5% since April. This was the fifth decrease in seven months. The Freight TSI is at its second lowest level since November 2020 but is 7.0% above the pandemic low in April 2020. The index is 5.6% below its record level of 142.0 in August 2019 and has decreased in thirteen of the last 24 months since that peak. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.
Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in August 2021 (134.1) were 41.3% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (94.9). The August 2021 level was 5.6% below the historic peak reached in August 2019 (142.0) (Table 1A).
Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were down 0.6% in August compared to the end of 2020 (Table 3).
Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 8.2% in the five years from August 2016 and are up 20.9% in the 10 years from August 2011 (Table 5).
Same month of previous year: August 2021 for-hire freight shipments were up 1.4% from August 2020 (Tables 4, 5).
The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the September 2021 index is scheduled for November 10, 2021.
Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.
