Spot rates firm as load posts fall 18% after quarter-end push

DAT One load posts totaled 2.7 million for the week of Oct. 4–10, down 18% from the prior week, as the quarter-end freight that filled the final days of September cleared. Total equipment posts rose 4% to 177,300. National average broker-to-carrier spot rates rose for dry van and reefer freight, while lower diesel prices pulled the flatbed all-in rate down last week. Linehaul rates rose for all three equipment types.

7-day average broker-to-carrier spot rates (linehaul + fuel surcharge):

▲ Van: $3.12 per mile, up 3 cents

▲ Reefer: $3.68 per mile, up 3 cents

▼ Flatbed: $3.68 per mile, down 2 cents

Dry van: Freight availability eased while rates held

▼ Loads: 1,264,195, down 20%

▲ Trucks: 120,348, up 4%

▲ Linehaul rate: $2.26 per mile, up 5 cents

▼ Load-to-truck ratio: 10.5, down from 13.7 the prior week

Reefer: Loads pulled back after the quarter-end push

▼ Loads: 562,902, down 21%

▲ Trucks: 33,603, up 2%

▲ Linehaul rate: $2.75 per mile, up 6 cents

▼ Load-to-truck ratio: 16.8, down from 21.6 the prior week

Flatbed: Load-to-truck ratio tightened

▼ Loads: 854,535, down 12%

▲ Trucks: 23,349, up 6%

▲ Linehaul rate: $2.65 per mile, up 1 cent

▼ Load-to-truck ratio: 36.6, down from 44.1 the prior week

Market analysis from Dean Croke, industry analyst at DAT Freight & Analytics

Lower fuel prices trimmed the surcharge. The EIA’s national average on-highway diesel price used in this report’s fuel surcharge calculation was $6.382 a gallon (week ending Sept. 28). The 14.7-cent decline from the previous week took about 2 cents a mile off the national average dry van surcharge and 3 cents off reefer and flatbed. The EIA reported $6.199 a gallon as a national average for the week ending Oct. 5; that price will be reflected in the fuel surcharge in next week’s report.

Load-to-truck ratios remain higher year over year. Truck posts on DAT One are more than 20% below a year ago, while load posts are higher for all three equipment types. Load-to-truck ratios sit well above year-ago levels: 10.5 against 6.3 for van, 16.8 against 10.7 for reefer, and 36.6 against 27.2 for flatbed.

Linehaul rates are about a third above last year. Van linehaul is up 35% year over year, reefer 33%, and flatbed 29%. Against the nine-year seasonal average for this week, van runs 23% higher, reefer 28%, and flatbed 25%. The 35-day DAT iQ RateCast forecast has van linehaul easing to $2.23 a mile by mid-November, reefer edging up to $2.77, and flatbed easing to $2.59.