This week’s Market Insights Report looks at how depreciation trends may be showing early signs of spring, with two truck segments actually showing no depreciation last week. The report also highlights all the specialty vehicle trends, as well as a look at residual value forecasts, which remain strong on pickup trucks while luxury cars and sub-compact cars show relative weakness.

Heavy Duty:

“Used trucks of all ages dropped more across all segments than last month but are still doing very well.”

Charles Cathey – Senior Analyst – Heavy Duty Truck and Trailer

  • Few high-value long and tall or vocational units showed up at auction in January, which attributed to some of the higher depreciation.
  • Even with the higher value decrease over last month, depreciation was less than half the value the same month last year for over the road units.
  • Depreciation should continue to increase as miles increase and condition worsens, and we will continue to study results to see if this is the case. DATE Construction/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & 2016-2017 HD Construction/Vocational segment decreased an average of $145 (0.2%) in January, compared to the average increase of $4 (0.0%) in December.
  • 2016-2017 HD Over the Road Tractor segment dropped an average of $228 (0.3%) in January, compared to the average drop of $82 (0.1%) in December.
  • 2016-2017 HD Regional Tractor segment dropped an average of $218 (0.3%) in January, compared to the average depreciation of $8 (0.0%) in December. DATE Construction/Vocational Over the Road Trucks 2008-2015 HD Construction/Vocational segment dropped an average of $109 (0.2%) in January, compared to the $6 (0.0%) average depreciation in December.
  • 2008-2015 HD Over the Road Tractor segment dropped an average of $111 (0.3%) in January, compared to $72 (0.2%) average depreciation in December.
  • 2008-2015 HD Regional Tractor segment dropped an average of $107 (0.4%) in January, compared to the average drop of $27 (0.1%) in December.

Medium Duty:

“Increased demand has helped offset price depreciation as a steady supply of used inventory continues through January”. Josh Giles - Principal Automotive Analyst

  • There was a slight increase in depreciation on Class 4-6 units for January, while we also saw improvements in Light Duty Trucks and Class 7 Units.
  • A steady supply of box trucks is helping keep downward pressure on some models, while limited supply has caused other units to increase in value.
  • Wholesale prices are expected to continue a slow downward trend though the first Quarter of 2019.
  • New truck orders for 2019 are expected to increase a bit over 2018 for all Classes; however, increased demand will help ease overall depreciation for most units.